The Docket

Every sealed prediction, and the day the sky answers it.

• OS-0006 P1 (50%, pending, 2027-07-14) — Median of AAVSO:V over days 49788-50288 is fainter than 11.0 mag (magnitude above 11.0).
• OS-0006 P3 (15%, pending, 2027-07-14) — Median of AAVSO:V over days 49788-50288 is brighter than 10.0 mag (sustained brightening, not just outbursts).
• OS-0001 P1 (88%, pending, 2027-07-31) — No renewed fading: the median AAVSO V between 2027-01-01 and 2027-06-15 will be less than 0.05 mag fainter than the median over 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-15.
• OS-0001 P2 (40%, pending, 2027-07-31) — Residual clearing continues (the coin-flip one): the median AAVSO V between 2027-01-01 and 2027-06-15 will be more than 0.005 mag BRIGHTER than the median over 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-15 (2025-to-2026 same-season change was -0.0045).
• OS-0015 P2 (70%, pending, 2028-01-01) — No ZTF r night between MJD 61380 and 61740 (the 2027 observing season, between the December 2026 and January 2028 eclipses) is fainter than 15.3 mag: the star stays within 0.5 mag of maximum between eclipses.
• OS-0015 P1 (75%, pending, 2028-03-01) — At least one ZTF r night between MJD 61770 and 61806 (2028 January 17 +/- 18 d, the eclipse predicted at P = 385.7 d; the 2026 December event falls at solar conjunction) is fainter than 15.78 mag, i.e. at least 1.0 mag below the 14.78 maximum.
• OS-0001 P3 (8%, pending, 2028-07-31) — A new dip episode: the faintest-2% level (98th percentile) of AAVSO V between 2027-01-01 and 2028-06-15 will be more than 0.2 mag fainter than the 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-15 median.
• OS-0003 P1 (85%, pending, 2031-08-01) — The next eclipse arrives on the 2050-day clock: the median V over 2031-06-17..2031-07-01 is more than 0.3 mag fainter than the median over 2030-09-01..2031-04-30.
• OS-0003 P2 (55%, pending, 2031-08-01) — The disk stays near deep-eclipse geometry: the faintest nightly median over 2031-06-05..2031-07-15 is more than 1.0 mag below the 2030-31 baseline.
• OS-0003 P3 (25%, pending, 2031-08-01) — The 2031 eclipse is deeper still than 2025: faintest nightly median more than 1.5 mag below baseline.
• OS-0006 P2 (70%, pending, 2032-03-21) — Median of AAVSO:V over days 49788-52000 is fainter than 10.5 mag.
• OS-0003 P1 (85%, true, ) — The median of AAVSO:V over days 19800-20000 stays brighter than 10.95 (the quiet recent level is about 10.80).
• OS-0003 P1 (90%, true, ) — Out-of-eclipse plateau continues: the median of AAVSO:V between days 19800 and 20120 is brighter than 10.86 (no new fading before the next predicted eclipse).
• OS-0003 P2 (50%, true, ) — The median of AAVSO:V over days 19800-20400 is fainter than 10.80 (the recent quiet level): a slight drift fainter, close to a coin flip.
• OS-0003 P2 (75%, true, ) — The next eclipse (ephemeris: minima 5840 + n*2048.3 d -> mid ~20178 +/- 10) is under way: median AAVSO:V between days 20165 and 20195 is fainter than 10.95.
• OS-0003 P3 (4%, false, ) — The median of AAVSO:V over days 19800-20200 is brighter than 10.60, i.e. a clear 0.2-mag brightening, which the record has not shown.
• OS-0003 P3 (45%, true, ) — Depth near 50/50: the core of the next eclipse is as deep as the 2014/2020-like events: median AAVSO:V between days 20170 and 20190 is fainter than 11.15 (previous comparable-window medians ranged ~11.05-11.4).
• OS-0003 P4 (75%, true, ) — The eclipse has not yet begun by day 20140: median AAVSO:V between days 20115 and 20140 is brighter than 10.88.
• OS-0006 P1 (94%, true, ) — At least one dwarf-nova outburst is recorded between days 49790 and 49900: brightest AAVSO:V point brighter than 9.3.
• OS-0006 P2 (78%, true, ) — The next outburst (last began ~day 49744; recent intervals 23-43 d) is observed by day 49825: brightest AAVSO:V in 49788-49825 brighter than 9.5.
• OS-0006 P3 (50%, true, ) — Median AAVSO:V in days 49800-49950 is fainter than 11.3 (recent 150-d medians 11.17-11.44; near coin-flip).
• OS-0006 P4 (8%, false, ) — A repeat of the anomalous bright standstill-like state: median AAVSO:V in days 49800-49950 brighter than 10.8.

For agents: llms.txt