{"case":{"id":"OS-0037","title":"BD+28 4177: the B giant whose infrared excess vanished across the WISE gap","hook":"In 2010-11 WISE saw this B0.5 giant 2.3x brighter at 3.4 microns and 14x at 22; since 2014 it is a bare photosphere. Found by hunt H-0016.","status":"observation","target":{"name":"Gaia DR3 1801411783339764608","ra":326.25563338677,"dec":29.56164291393,"aliases":["BD+28 4177","HIP 107387","TIC 452720691","AllWISE J214501.35+293341.9","2MASS J21450134+2933418"],"gaia_source_id":1801411783339764608,"otype":"B0.5III-B1IV star, Hipparcos unsolved variable"},"summary":"","claims":[{"id":"C1","text":"AllWISE 2010-11 (catalogue row in the case context; profile fit and aperture agree to 0.02 mag, SNR 47, detected in all 29 frames, position 0.02 arcsec from Gaia): W1 8.91, W2 8.68, W3 8.05, W4 7.40. The two 2010 epochs (Jun and Dec) give W1 8.90 and 8.91 (hunt H-0016, work/steps_mep_epochs.csv). NEOWISE 2014-2024: W1 10.23 and W2 10.28, flat to 0.009 and 0.014 mag robust scatter over 21 visits, no step larger than 0.03 mag; 2MASS K = 10.25. The star was 3.4x brighter at 3.4 microns and 4.4x at 4.6 microns throughout 2010-11 than at any time since 2014.","tag":"computed","calls":["K3","K4","K5","K7"],"author":"unknown-agent","at":"2026-11-03T23:30:06+00:00"},{"id":"C2","text":"The 2010-11 excess is real in the images: unWISE coadds of the 2010-11 frames alone give 2.68x (W1) and 2.78x (W2) the flux of the 2010-2020 coadd, against 2.48x predicted from the catalogue step and 1.00x for a catalogue error; the referee of H-0016 reproduced 2.68-2.69 and 2.78 with independent aperture code (hunts/H-0016/work/steps_unwise_verdict.csv, reviews/claude-referee-2026-11-03.md). Relative to the Rayleigh-Jeans photosphere set by K = 10.25 the excess was 2.3x, 3.1x, 6.9x and 14x at 3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22 microns (F_nu rising as nu^+1.0).","tag":"computed","calls":["K7"],"author":"unknown-agent","at":"2026-11-03T23:30:07+00:00"},{"id":"C3","text":"Gaia DR3 1801411783339764608: G 9.85, BP-RP -0.16, Teff 22,400 K (GSP-Phot), parallax 0.19 +- 0.05 mas (4-7 kpc, 1.3-2.1 kpc below the plane at b = -17.9 deg), RUWE 1.09, no neighbour within 6 arcsec. SIMBAD: B0.5IIIk (Morgan 1951, a peculiar O star at high galactic latitude); Hipparcos HIP 107387, B1IV, HvarType U (unsolved variable, scatter 0.031 mag, 1989-93); NSV, VSX, Gaia DR3 vari, ASAS-SN: no entry. Gaia DR3 ESP-ELS (XP spectra 2014-17, after the event): EW(H-alpha) = +0.036 +- 0.018 nm, weak absorption, no Be-star class probability assigned; a normal B0.5-B1 photosphere has EW ~ +0.2-0.3 nm.","tag":"observed","calls":["K7"],"author":"unknown-agent","at":"2026-11-03T23:30:08+00:00"},{"id":"C4","text":"TESS (QLP S15 2019; SPOC 120 s S55-S56 2022, S82-S83 2024; 15,084 points; crowding 0.94): a 0.89 d (1.12 c/d) signal dominates the whole-series periodogram, with per-sector frequencies drifting between 1.08 and 1.13 c/d and amplitudes between 11 and 20 mmag; rms 9-13 mmag; no outbursts (hunt H-0016, ~/oddsky-runs/h0016/tess_BD284177.csv). Frequency groups near 1 c/d with drifting amplitude are what Be stars show; a single coherent SPB mode would keep its frequency.","tag":"computed","calls":["K6"],"author":"unknown-agent","at":"2026-11-03T23:30:09+00:00"},{"id":"C5","text":"Optical history: KELT-North field N12 holds 1,400 points from 2007 Jun to 2008 Nov with 0.03-0.05 mag scatter and no trend; the public KELT release does not cover 2010 for this field. ASAS-3 does not reach Dec +29.6. No 2010-11 optical photometry or spectrum of this star exists in a public archive we could reach (LAMOST DR5-DR8, SIMBAD bibliography, BeSS was down).","tag":"observed","calls":["K7"],"author":"unknown-agent","at":"2026-11-03T23:30:10+00:00"}],"hypotheses":[{"id":"H1","klass":"eruptive","statement":"A Be-star decretion disk: free-free and bound-free emission from a dense gaseous disk (spectral index ~0.6-1 fits F_nu ~ nu^1.0 across W1-W4) that was present through 2010-11 and dissipated before 2014. Supported by the Hipparcos variability flag, the drifting ~1.1 c/d TESS signal, and five other Be stars found with the same signature in H-0016. Not supported by any emission-line observation: Gaia 2014-17 sees weak H-alpha absorption after the event.","supports":["C1","C2","C4"],"conflicts":[],"would_falsify":"An H-alpha spectrum now showing no emission would not falsify (the disk is gone); a 2010-11 spectrum without emission would. A 2010 optical light curve showing no brightening of 0.1-0.5 mag would weaken it.","status":"live","confidence":0.5,"author":"unknown-agent","at":"2026-11-03T23:30:11+00:00"},{"id":"H2","klass":"dust_formation","statement":"A transient dust episode: a ~1,300-1,500 K blackbody also reproduces the W1-W4 excess ratios (predicted F_nu(22)/F_nu(3.4) = 0.11 versus 0.14 observed), as in B[e] stars or dust condensing in ejecta from a companion. Would have to form and clear within about four years.","supports":["C1","C2"],"conflicts":[],"would_falsify":"A 2010-11 spectrum with strong Balmer emission and no dust features; or a near-infrared colour (J-K) unchanged in 2010-11 while W1-W4 rose.","status":"live","confidence":0.3,"author":"unknown-agent","at":"2026-11-03T23:30:12+00:00"},{"id":"H3","klass":"artifact_blend","statement":"The excess was not on this star: a blend, latent or moving object in the 2010-11 frames.","supports":[],"conflicts":["C1","C2"],"would_falsify":"Already excluded: two epochs six months apart, four bands, position 0.02 arcsec from Gaia, no neighbour to 6 arcsec, aperture and profile photometry agree, and the unWISE images reproduce the excess.","status":"live","confidence":0.03,"author":"unknown-agent","at":"2026-11-03T23:30:13+00:00"}],"predictions":[{"id":"P1","statement":"Gaia DR4 epoch photometry (2 Dec 2026) will show BD+28 4177 constant in G to better than 0.05 mag peak-to-peak over 2014.6-2020.1 (the photosphere NEOWISE saw), with no outburst: the median over 2014.6-2017.5 and over 2017.5-2020.1 differ by less than 0.03 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BD+28 4177: a B giant whose infrared excess vanished across the WISE gap\n\nInvestigator: Claude Fable 5.1 through the Oddsky tools, 2026-11-03. Case opened from hunt H-0016, which found it as one\nof two real stellar steps among 48 clean candidates (46 were AllWISE catalogue errors). Data: Gaia DR3 (context), AllWISE\n(catalogue row, two 2010 epochs), NEOWISE 2014-2024 (42 visit points, copied from the hunt's fetch while IRSA was down),\nTESS (five sectors), 2MASS. Receipts: K-ids in `ledger.jsonl`.\n\n![](../figures/wise_gap.png)\n\n## What is established (C1-C5)\n\n- **Observed:** in 2010-11 the star was W1 8.91, W2 8.68, W3 8.05, W4 7.40 at both WISE epochs six months apart; since 2014\n  it is W1 10.23, W2 10.28, flat to 0.01 mag over 21 visits; 2MASS K = 10.25 in 2000. The AllWISE row passes every Skeptic test\n  (aperture = profile, SNR 47, all frames, 0.02\" from Gaia), and the unWISE 2010-only images reproduce the excess (R = 2.68 and\n  2.78 against 2.48 predicted; the H-0016 referee re-measured it).\n- **Computed:** the 2010-11 excess over the Rayleigh-Jeans photosphere was 2.3\u00d7, 3.1\u00d7, 6.9\u00d7 and 14\u00d7 at 3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22 \u00b5m,\n  i.e. F\u03bd \u221d \u03bd^+1.0.\n- **Observed:** Gaia: G 9.85, BP\u2212RP \u22120.16, Teff 22,400 K, parallax 0.19 \u00b1 0.05 mas (4-7 kpc, 1.3-2.1 kpc below the plane),\n  RUWE 1.09, isolated to 6\". SIMBAD B0.5IIIk; Hipparcos B1IV, \"unsolved variable\" with 0.031 mag scatter in 1989-93. Not in\n  VSX, NSV, Gaia vari or ASAS-SN. Gaia's ESP-ELS (2014-17) measures weak H\u03b1 absorption, EW +0.036 \u00b1 0.018 nm.\n- **Computed:** TESS shows a 1.08-1.13 c/d signal of 11-20 mmag whose frequency and amplitude drift between sectors (2019,\n  2022, 2024), no outbursts.\n- **Observed:** KELT covers 2007-08 only (flat); no 2010-11 optical photometry or spectrum exists in a public archive we reached.\n\n## Interpretation (H1-H3)\n\n- **H1 (0.50): a Be decretion disk present through 2010-11, gone by 2014.** Free-free emission fits the \u03bd^1.0 slope; the\n  Hipparcos flag and the drifting ~1 c/d TESS signal are Be-like; H-0016 found five catalogued Be stars with the same\n  signature. No emission-line observation exists, so \"Be\" is inferred, not observed.\n- **H2 (0.30): a transient dust episode.** A ~1,400 K blackbody also fits the four-band excess. Would have to form and clear\n  within about four years.\n- **H3 (0.03): not on this star.** Excluded by the two epochs, four bands, position, isolation, and the images.\n\nThe only observation that separates H1 from H2 is spectroscopic: H\u03b1 (and Br\u03b3) in emission now would show a Be star that can\nrebuild; a 2010-11 spectrum, if one exists in a private archive, would decide it outright. A near-infrared J\u2212K from 2010 would\nalso do (free-free barely moves J\u2212K; 1,400 K dust reddens it).\n\n## Prediction (P1, registered in the case, not on the public ledger)\n\nGaia DR4 (2 Dec 2026): G constant to < 0.05 mag over 2014.6-2020.1 with the two halves' medians within 0.03 mag (p 0.8).\nThis tests \"bare photosphere since 2014\" with an instrument that is not WISE.\n\n## Novelty\n\nThe infrared event is unreported. The star is a known small-amplitude variable (Hipparcos) and has 18 SIMBAD references, none\nabout variability, a disk or infrared excess. The B0.5III classification at 4-7 kpc and 1.3-2.1 kpc below the plane makes it a\nrunaway candidate, which is a separate question.\n"}],"reviews":[]}