{"case":{"id":"OS-0034","title":"A source in NGC 3344 next to Wolf-Rayet stars that flares in the infrared about every 10 years, like the dust maker WR 140","hook":"Found blind by Oddsky's search for repeating infrared sources (hunt H-0013): sharp infrared outbursts in 2004, 2014 and 2023, each lasting about a year and a half over a flat minimum, on a young star cluster whose spectrum shows Wolf-Rayet features. Next outburst expected around 2033.","status":"reproduced","target":{"name":"NGC 3344 periodic IR source","ra":160.88167,"dec":24.9663,"aliases":[]},"summary":"An infrared source in the spiral galaxy NGC 3344 (6.9 Mpc) that flares for about a year and a half roughly every 10 years (2004, 2014, 2023), on a young cluster whose spectrum shows Wolf-Rayet stars. It looks like a scaled-up WR 140, a binary that makes dust each time its stars swing close. Next outburst expected around 2033. Found blind by Oddsky hunt H-0013.","claims":[{"id":"C1","text":"Spitzer/IRAC: +80 uJy above quiescence at 2004.32 in both bands; quiescent 2012.5-2013.1; a rise caught at 2013.18 and a peak at 2014.1 (+85 uJy); quiescent again by 2016. WISE: flat 2016-2022, then a new outburst peaking about 2023.3 (hunts/H-0013/README.md).","tag":"observed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00"},{"id":"C2","text":"Outbursts spaced 9.8 and about 9.2 yr, each lasting about 1.5 yr (duty cycle about 0.15) with a fast rise: the morphology of WR 140. Peak nu L_nu(W2) about 1e5 L_sun at 6.85 Mpc, about 30x WR 140. The Spitzer variable is a point source 0.45\" from the WISE position.","tag":"computed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00"},{"id":"C3","text":"It lies 0.4\" from [BKD2008] WR 541, an SDSS fibre spectrum with Wolf-Rayet features (Brinchmann, Kunth & Durret 2008), on a blue knot (Gaia G = 21.1, BP-RP about 0, M_G about -8: a young cluster). The WR signature belongs to a 3\" (about 100 pc) fibre, not necessarily to this star.","tag":"observed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00"},{"id":"C4","text":"Caveat: the 2004 outburst rests on a single Spitzer epoch.","tag":"observed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00"},{"id":"C5","text":"Not reported (2026-11-02): ADS full text for the coordinates and for the host with variability terms finds nothing on this source; nothing in TNS, SIMBAD, Gaia DR3, AllWISE or the Spitzer SEIP catalogue at the position; the SPIRITS catalogue of luminous long-period variables (Karambelkar et al. 2019) does not cover this galaxy.","tag":"observed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00"}],"hypotheses":[{"id":"H1","klass":"dust_formation","statement":"A WR 140-like colliding-wind Wolf-Rayet binary forming dust at each periastron, P about 10 yr.","supports":["C1","C2","C3"],"conflicts":[],"would_falsify":"No infrared outburst in 2031-2035, or an infrared spectrum showing silicate dust.","status":"live","confidence":0.55,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00"},{"id":"H2","klass":"pulsation","statement":"An extremely luminous dusty long-period variable.","supports":["C1"],"conflicts":["C2"],"would_falsify":"A 10-yr period is well beyond the longest known pulsators (about 7 yr), and the flat minimum argues against it.","status":"live","confidence":0.15,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00"},{"id":"H3","klass":"artifact_blend","statement":"Two unrelated events, or variability of another source in the cluster.","supports":["C4"],"conflicts":["C2"],"would_falsify":"A third well-sampled outburst at the predicted time.","status":"live","confidence":0.15,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00"}],"predictions":[],"literature":[],"hunt":"H-0013","featured":false,"created_at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00"},"series":{},"context":{},"provenance":{},"skeptic":null,"ledger":[{"id":"K1","tool":"add_claim","args":{"id":"C1","tag":"observed"},"digest":"47420e4be8ce39a8","digest10":"47420e4be8ce39a8","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00","oddsky":"0.3.1","platform":"darwin-arm64"},{"id":"K2","tool":"add_claim","args":{"id":"C2","tag":"computed"},"digest":"810fe66681869023","digest10":"810fe66681869023","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00","oddsky":"0.3.1","platform":"darwin-arm64"},{"id":"K3","tool":"add_claim","args":{"id":"C3","tag":"observed"},"digest":"a8e3dde17ac83cf1","digest10":"a8e3dde17ac83cf1","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00","oddsky":"0.3.1","platform":"darwin-arm64"},{"id":"K4","tool":"add_claim","args":{"id":"C4","tag":"observed"},"digest":"a75fcb10446e9d88","digest10":"a75fcb10446e9d88","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00","oddsky":"0.3.1","platform":"darwin-arm64"},{"id":"K5","tool":"add_claim","args":{"id":"C5","tag":"observed"},"digest":"0bcef7dd6aaf715f","digest10":"0bcef7dd6aaf715f","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00","oddsky":"0.3.1","platform":"darwin-arm64"},{"id":"K6","tool":"add_hypothesis","args":{"id":"H1","klass":"dust_formation"},"digest":"a3afdee2a580e9e9","digest10":"a3afdee2a580e9e9","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00","oddsky":"0.3.1","platform":"darwin-arm64"},{"id":"K7","tool":"add_hypothesis","args":{"id":"H2","klass":"pulsation"},"digest":"3c8ab29249da19db","digest10":"3c8ab29249da19db","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00","oddsky":"0.3.1","platform":"darwin-arm64"},{"id":"K8","tool":"add_hypothesis","args":{"id":"H3","klass":"artifact_blend"},"digest":"98cd99168b0a91ec","digest10":"98cd99168b0a91ec","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-11-02T21:36:38+00:00","oddsky":"0.3.1","platform":"darwin-arm64"}],"investigations":[],"reviews":[]}