{"case":{"id":"OS-0021","title":"A G = 15 star in Scorpius brightened nearly eightfold for months in 2018: a long microlensing candidate","hook":"Found blind in Oddsky hunt H-0008 (NEOWISE: x1.4 on 2018 Mar 16 and x3.0 on 2018 Aug 27, equal in W1 and W2). ATLAS shows a smooth x7.7 event peaking 2018 Jul 11-14; a lens fits only with annual parallax, and the timescale is poorly constrained.","status":"reproduced","target":{"name":"Gaia DR3 5952322268527918208","ra":262.961311,"dec":-44.763659,"aliases":[],"gaia_source_id":5952322268527918208},"summary":"","claims":[{"id":"C1","text":"NEOWISE: x1.4 on 2018 Mar 16 and x3.0 on 2018 Aug 27, equal in W1 and W2; every other visit quiet. Found blind by hunt H-0008.","tag":"observed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-31T03:31:12+00:00"},{"id":"C2","text":"ATLAS (task 5273739) shows one smooth x7.7 brightening peaking 2018 Jul 11-14. A static lens needs a source brighter than all the light in the aperture and is excluded; a lens fits only with annual parallax, and tE is unconstrained (~120-490 d). The rise is mildly chromatic and the peak may be partly saturated (hunts/H-0008/reviews/claude-referee-atlas10-2026-10-30.md).","tag":"computed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-31T03:31:12+00:00"},{"id":"C3","text":"Gaia scanned the star 27, 50 and 80 d after the ATLAS peak without an alert.","tag":"computed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-31T03:31:12+00:00"}],"hypotheses":[{"id":"H1","klass":"microlensing","statement":"A long microlensing event with annual parallax (P 0.55, ATLAS-follow-up referee); not established.","supports":["C1","C2","C3"],"conflicts":[],"would_falsify":"Gaia DR4 flat during the event, or a repeat.","status":"live","confidence":0.55,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-31T03:31:12+00:00"}],"predictions":[{"id":"P1","hypothesis":"H1","statement":"Gaia DR4 G epoch photometry of Gaia DR3 5952322268527918208 (or the DR4 source cross-matched to it): the brightest nightly-median G in MJD 58150-58400 (2018-02-01 to 2018-10-09 00:00; forecast 10 transits on 6 nights) is more than 1.0 mag brighter than the median G in MJD 56863.5-57935 (2014-07-25 to 2017-07-01). Model: 1.4-1.85 mag, on 2018 Aug 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