{"case":{"id":"OS-0019","title":"A bulge giant in Sagittarius brightened by half for four months in 2022: a blended microlensing candidate","hook":"Found blind in Oddsky hunt H-0008 as a colour-neutral 1.5x brightening in NEOWISE (2022 Sep 8). ATLAS and ZTF show one smooth event peaking in late August 2022, equal from g to 4.6 microns. ALeRCE classifies the ZTF object as LPV/YSO.","status":"reproduced","target":{"name":"Gaia DR3 4090003970570642816","ra":277.670788,"dec":-22.163984,"aliases":[],"gaia_source_id":4090003970570642816},"summary":"An M giant toward the Galactic bulge brightened once, by about 60%, peaking in 2022 mid-August, equally from g to 4.6 microns, and was back to normal by December. NEOWISE, ATLAS and ZTF all see it. It looks like microlensing, but a simple point lens fits only with a blend Gaia does not see, so it stays a candidate. Found blind by the H-0008 all-sky NEOWISE search.","claims":[{"id":"C1","text":"In the NEOWISE visit of 2022 Sep 8 the star was 0.47 mag brighter in W1 and 0.46 in W2 than its median (W1 9.70): x1.54, equal in both bands. W1 is otherwise flat to 0.7% rms over 2014-2024. Found blind by the H-0008 all-sky search.","tag":"observed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-30T15:32:42+00:00"},{"id":"C2","text":"ATLAS (task 5272651) shows one brightening in 2015-2026, peaking in 2022 Aug: 2022 Aug 10-25 is 0.53 mag brighter in o and 0.49 mag in c than in 2023 Nov - 2026 (79 and 70 sigma). It rises from April and is back near baseline by December 2022. No other 20-day bin is above x1.05 in o.","tag":"observed","calls":["K1","K2"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-30T15:32:42+00:00"},{"id":"C3","text":"ZTF g and r (field 283) show the same brightening at the same flux ratio, 1.55-1.6 at the peak; the ZTF difference-image centroid of ZTF22aalviwh (38 alerts) is 0.09\" from the Gaia star.","tag":"observed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-30T15:32:42+00:00"},{"id":"C4","text":"The flux ratio is the same from ZTF g to WISE W2 (1.53-1.6 near the peak), and the bands peak together (2022 Aug 15-20 within a few days).","tag":"computed","calls":["K1","K2"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-30T15:32:42+00:00"},{"id":"C5","text":"A point lens fits only if 80-90% of the light in every band from g to W2 comes from an unresolved blend; Gaia sees no companion (RUWE 0.97, no multiple peaks) and resolves neighbours that give 3% of the ATLAS flux. With the blend fixed to Gaia's value the lens fit is worse by delta chi2 27-78, and a free symmetric bump fits better than any lens by 16-48. Robust: peak 2022 Aug 15-20, peak flux ratio 1.55-1.6, effective timescale |u0| tE about 35 d. tE itself is unconstrained.","tag":"computed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-30T15:32:42+00:00"},{"id":"C6","text":"Gaia DR3 4090003970570642816 (G 14.3): an M giant (J-K 1.28, W1-W2 -0.17 from CO absorption), no infrared excess, l = 10.9, b = -5.6, toward the bulge.","tag":"observed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-30T15:32:42+00:00"},{"id":"C7","text":"ALeRCE labels ZTF22aalviwh LPV/YSO, but its classifier has no microlensing class. As a pulsation it fails: the only period in the ATLAS baseline is 1.1% at 323 d, W1 varies by 0.7% rms in ten years, and a pulsation would be 3-10 times larger in g than in W1, not equal.","tag":"inferred","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-30T15:32:42+00:00"},{"id":"C8","text":"Not found (2026-10-30) in TNS, the Gaia Science Alerts (60\"), KMTNet or OGLE EWS (outside both footprints), the ZTF microlensing catalogues, SIMBAD, VSX, ADS full text or a web search. Not checked: MOA 2022, ASAS-SN.","tag":"observed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-30T15:32:42+00:00"}],"hypotheses":[{"id":"H1","klass":"microlensing","statement":"A lens magnified the M giant in 2022 August, with a blend or a more complex lens (binary source or lens, extended source) shaping the broad wings.","supports":["C1","C2","C3","C4"],"conflicts":["C5"],"would_falsify":"A repeat; a resolved colour change; Gaia DR5 flat in 2022.","status":"live","confidence":0.65,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-30T15:32:42+00:00"},{"id":"H2","klass":"pulsation","statement":"Long-period or semiregular variability of the M giant.","supports":[],"conflicts":["C7","C4"],"would_falsify":"Already disfavoured: no periodicity, flat W1, equal amplitude from g to W2.","status":"live","confidence":0.1,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-30T15:32:42+00:00"}],"predictions":[{"id":"P1","hypothesis":"H1","statement":"Gaia DR4 epoch photometry shows no repeat: in 2014 Jul - 2020 Jan no night is more than 0.3 mag brighter in G than the DR4 median.","check":{"series":"GAIA:G","start":56863.0,"end":58868.99999,"statistic":"brightest","baseline":[56863.0,58868.99999],"op":">","value":-0.3},"probability":0.8,"resolve_by":"2027-12-31","author":"claude-opus-5.5","registered_at":"2026-10-30T15:32:42+00:00"},{"id":"P2","hypothesis":"H1","statement":"Gaia DR5 sees the 2022 brightening: the brightest night in 2022 Feb - 2023 May is more than 0.3 mag brighter in G than the 2015-2021 median (about -0.5 expected at the 2022 Sep 7 transit). DR5 is expected about 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