{"case":{"id":"OS-0017","title":"A halo giant brightened at least 2.4 times in March 2020 and faded over six months: a microlensing event","hook":"Found in Oddsky hunt H-0007 among faint stars: a one-visit, colour-neutral 2x brightening in NEOWISE (2020 Apr 9-10). ATLAS shows one smooth event, x2.4 on Mar 11 and within 2% of normal by October; ZTF catches the tail. The peak fell in a gap. Not in VSX, TNS, SIMBAD or the Gaia alerts.","status":"reproduced","target":{"name":"Gaia DR3 6772245406602788608","ra":293.471115,"dec":-21.3037472,"aliases":[],"gaia_source_id":6772245406602788608},"summary":"A K giant in the Galactic halo, beyond about 6 kpc (l = 18, b = -19), brightened once in 2020: x2.4 in ATLAS on Mar 11, x2.0 in both ATLAS and NEOWISE W1/W2 on Apr 9-10, fading through ZTF's June-July tail, within 2% of normal by October. The extra light has the star's own colour from g to 4.6 microns. Microlensing with annual parallax fits (peak 2020 Mar 17-22 at about x2.7-2.9, tE 40-55 d; the peak itself fell in a gap and is unobserved); a lens without parallax leaves an asymmetry. Two referee passes: P(mundane) = 0.02. Nothing similar in 2014-2026. Not in VSX, TNS, SIMBAD, the Gaia alerts or KMTNet. Gaia DR5 will hold three transits during the event.","claims":[{"id":"C1","text":"In the NEOWISE visit of 2020 Apr 9-10 the star was 0.744 mag brighter in W1 (12.309 against 13.053) and 0.731 mag brighter in W2 (12.387 against 13.118): a factor of 1.98, equal in both bands. 2,021 stars within 20' in the same frames are unchanged (referee, hunts/H-0007/reviews/claude-referee-J193353-2026-10-29.md).","tag":"observed","calls":["K1","K2"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T21:55:38+00:00"},{"id":"C2","text":"Apart from that visit NEOWISE W1 is flat over 20 visits (2014-2024), robust scatter 0.025 mag.","tag":"computed","calls":["K3"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T21:55:38+00:00"},{"id":"C3","text":"ATLAS o contains exactly one excursion in 2015-2026: brighter by 0.82 mag on 2020 Mar 11, the first night of the season, then declining for 57 days above the 0.2-mag threshold. On 2020 Apr 9-10 ATLAS o is 0.70 mag above its 2015-2019 median (22 sigma), and ATLAS c on Apr 22 is brightened by a similar amount, so the change is achromatic.","tag":"observed","calls":["K4","K5","K10"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T21:55:38+00:00"},{"id":"C4","text":"ZTF r and g in 2020 Jun 15 - Jul 25 are 0.11 and 0.10 mag brighter than in 2018-2019 (9-10 sigma). After correction with 12 colour-matched stars in the same exposures, the star is 0.17 mag bright on Jun 18 and 0.08-0.10 on Jul 14-21; it is the only one of 84 stars in its CCD quadrant to move.","tag":"observed","calls":["K7","K8"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T21:55:38+00:00"},{"id":"C5","text":"No Gaia DR3 source within 9.7\"; the brightest within 30\" (G = 18.3 at 17.8\") supplies under 7% of the target's G flux.","tag":"observed","calls":["K9"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T21:55:38+00:00"},{"id":"C6","text":"A point-source point-lens fit to nightly ATLAS c+o (scripts/hunt_h0007_j193353_fit.py, outside the Oddsky tools), with no blending or parallax, gives t0 = 2020 Mar 17, tE = 63 d, u0 = 0.43, A_max = 2.5 (chi2/dof 352/190, residual rms 2%). Without fitting them, it predicts the NEOWISE visit at x1.94 (observed x1.98) and the ZTF tail at x1.12 and x1.06 (observed x1.17 and x1.09). ATLAS has no 2020 data before Mar 11 or between Mar 11 and Apr 8, so the peak date and height are poorly constrained.","tag":"computed","calls":[],"retracted":"second referee (claude-referee-J193353-atlas-2026-10-29): a point lens without parallax leaves a systematic rise/decline asymmetry, so its t0, tE and u0 (and their covariance errors) are biased; replaced by C10","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T21:55:38+00:00"},{"id":"C7","text":"The extra light has the giant's own colour from ZTF g to WISE W2. A flare, accretion outburst or nova would be bluer and would not decline smoothly over six months.","tag":"inferred","calls":["K1","K2","K7","K8"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T21:55:38+00:00"},{"id":"C8","text":"Not found (2026-10-29) in VSX, the ASAS-SN, ZTF, ATLAS or Gaia DR3 variable catalogues, TNS (60\"), SIMBAD (CfA mirror), the Gaia Science Alerts, KMTNet 2020 or a web search. Gaia transited the star on 2020 Feb 28, Mar 12 and Apr 17 without an alert; those epochs will be in DR5.","tag":"observed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T21:55:38+00:00"},{"id":"C9","text":"The source is a K giant (BP-RP 1.26; Teff ~4,900 K with map extinction), beyond ~6 kpc from its parallax, and with a proper motion of 12.5 mas/yr moving at v_t > 350 km/s: probably a halo giant about 2.7 kpc below the Galactic plane.","tag":"inferred","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T21:55:38+00:00"},{"id":"C10","text":"The peak fell in ATLAS's 2020 gap (Mar 11 - Apr 8) and is unobserved. A point lens without parallax leaves the same asymmetry in ATLAS, NEOWISE and ZTF: the 2019 rising wing 2-3% below the model and the Jun-Sep 2020 tail 2-5% above. Annual parallax removes it (joint chi2 715 -> 460). Parallax point lens, 95% ranges (second referee): t0 = 2020 Mar 17-22, tE = 40-55 d, |u0| = 0.25-0.40, piE = 0.39-0.80, peak x2.66-2.94 observed, source fraction 0.6-1.04 per survey. Exponential and power-law declines fit the decline far worse (chi2 413 and 728 against 79). ATLAS c/o excess ratio 1.05 +/- 0.03: achromatic to ~5% from g to W2. Outside the Oddsky tools: hunts/H-0007/reviews/claude-referee-J193353-atlas-2026-10-29/.","tag":"computed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T22:04:50+00:00"}],"hypotheses":[{"id":"H1","klass":"microlensing","statement":"A foreground star passed within ~0.4 Einstein radii of the halo giant, magnifying it about 2.5 times around 2020 mid-March.","supports":["C1","C2","C3","C4","C6","C7"],"conflicts":[],"would_falsify":"A repeat brightening; Gaia DR5 epoch photometry flat on 2020 Feb 28 / Mar 12 / Apr 17, or BP and RP changing by different amounts.","status":"live","confidence":0.95,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T21:55:38+00:00"},{"id":"H2","klass":"eruptive","statement":"An outburst of an unseen companion, or a flare.","supports":[],"conflicts":["C7","C6"],"would_falsify":"A colour change during the event, or a repeat.","status":"live","confidence":0.03,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T21:55:38+00:00"},{"id":"H3","klass":"artifact_instrumental","statement":"A NEOWISE, ATLAS or ZTF artifact.","supports":[],"conflicts":["C1","C3","C4"],"would_falsify":"Already falsified: three instruments see the same event.","status":"rejected","confidence":0.01,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T21:55:38+00:00"},{"id":"H4","klass":"artifact_blend","statement":"A neighbouring source brightened.","supports":[],"conflicts":["C5","C1"],"would_falsify":"Already falsified: no source within 9.7\"; NEOWISE centroid 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Scope: the README pass-3 paragraph \"The second microlensing candidate\", `work/faint_events.csv`,\n`work/faint_clean_x.csv`, `work/ztf_J193353.csv` and `figures/J193353.png`. I re-derived every number. My scripts are in\n`reviews/claude-referee-J193353-2026-10-29/` (b1-b11, n1-n8). They run outside the Oddsky tools: pandas and scipy on the IRSA parquet,\nplus my own Gator, IRSA ZTF, Gaia TAP and IRSA dust queries. Run b1, b2 and b3 first, then b9 before `b7_lensfit.py /tmp/j1933ref/ztf_zoff.csv`; they share `/tmp/j1933ref/`.\nThe novelty scripts n1-n8 write to `/tmp/j1933nov/`.\n\n## Verdict\n\nThe 2020 brightening is real. NEOWISE shows it in 12 frames from 10 scans: the target is the only one of 2,021 stars within 20' that changed.\nZTF shows it independently, 70-100 days later and with the star's own colour: the target is the only one of 84 same-quadrant light curves (35 g, 49 r) that\nmoved. A point lens (tE \u2248 56 d, peak 2020 Apr 10 \u00b1 7 d, A \u2248 1.95, \u03c7\u00b2 229/423) fits both data sets. No flare, nova, dwarf nova,\nsupernova, blend or artifact fits them. **Probability that a mundane explanation is correct: 0.08.**\n\nThe residual risk has three parts:\n- Only one day of NEOWISE samples the peak, and nothing optical exists before Jun 18.\n- Gaia scanned the star three times during the predicted event without an alert.\n- Several README statements are wrong or unsupported: the \"slow decline\", \"peaking before Apr 9\", the Apr 14 point, the stellar parameters and the ZTF range (see Required wording changes).\n\n## Attacks and results\n\n**1. Instrumental (b1, b2, b4, b6, b10).**\n- *The event visit.* Apr 9-10 has 12 frames from 10 scans (15874r-15904r), MJD 58948.904-58949.885, plus one frame on Apr 14 (16034r, MJD 58954.136).\n  - All 13 frames have cc_flags 0000 and sso_flg 0. ph_qual is AA except for the split detection (AU) and the Apr 14 frame (AB).\n  - Three frames have qual_frame = 0. In one frame (15892r/113) the source is split (nb = 2, W2 14.9, W2 r\u03c7\u00b2 60); the same scan's frame 115 is clean.\n  - W1 = 12.317 against a 19-visit baseline of 13.056, so **\u0394W1 = \u22120.739**. W2 = 12.397 against 13.136, so **\u0394W2 = \u22120.739**.\n    Both bands are \u00d71.98; the README's \u00d71.96 and \u22120.75/\u22120.74 agree within the visit scatter.\n  - Visit-to-visit scatter elsewhere is 0.023 (W1) and 0.038 (W2). The colour change is \u22120.022, against a baseline colour scatter of 0.027-0.036.\n  - Median r\u03c7\u00b2 in the event visit is 1.15 (W1) and 0.90 (W2), against baseline-visit medians of 0.80-1.52 and 0.52-0.88.\n- *Controls in the same frames.* I took a 20' cone, W1 < 15, the event visit and the two adjacent visits (2019 Sep 29-Oct 1 and 2020 Sep 18-23): 88,849 detections.\n  - 2,021 AllWISE sources are measured in all three visits. **The target is the only one with \u0394W1 < \u22120.3.**\n  - In the target's own range (W1 12.6-13.6, 390 stars), \u0394W1 = +0.010 with MAD 0.025. At W1 9-11 it is +0.001 (MAD 0.007).\n  - Frame by frame, the median of the 140-330 magnitude-matched controls in each frame is between \u22120.005 and +0.012. In those same frames the target is at \u22120.68 to \u22120.76.\n- *Latents and ghosts.* I found no flag anywhere near the target:\n  - All 80 event-visit detections within 60\" of the target have cc_flags 0000.\n  - The bright stars nearest the target in that visit are W1 5.2 at 12.7', W1 2.37 at 22.4', W1 3.06 at 22.9' and W1 1.20 at 54.8'.\n  - A latent or ghost from any of them lands on a fixed detector offset, i.e. at a different sky position in each of 10 scans. It could not hold the source to 0.2\" and keep W1\u2212W2 constant.\n  - Pass 3 found its latent cases because they carry P/H/D flags in 20-80% of frames and have r\u03c7\u00b2 3-13\u00d7 normal. This star has 0% flagged frames and an r\u03c7\u00b2 ratio of 1.1.\n  - The one other pass-3 brightening near this epoch, J193806.08-151803.1 (6\u00b0 away, 2020 Apr 11), is a flagged latent (79% of frames flagged, \u03c7\u00b2 ratio 3.1).\n- *Moving objects.* The star lies **0.38\u00b0 from the ecliptic**, so asteroids are common there. But it was observed at 88.4-89.4\u00b0 solar elongation, where a main-belt asteroid moves about 0.25\u00b0/day. The centroid stayed fixed for 1 day, so this is excluded.\n- *Moon and SAA.* During Apr 9-10 the Moon was 52-66\u00b0 away and 89-95% illuminated, and no frame is moon-masked. Visit 8 (2018 Sep: 53\u00b0, 100%) and visit 7 (48\u00b0) had similar Moon conditions and are flat.\n  - **The Apr 14 frame is moon_masked = 11, with the Moon 6.2\u00b0 away.** Its controls sit at +0.022, so the frame is usable, but its bands disagree: W1 \u00d71.74 and W2 \u00d72.00 \u00b1 0.30.\n  - In the baseline visits, moon-masked frames scatter by 0.073 rms (as far as \u22120.13), while clean frames scatter by 0.042.\n  - Four Apr 9-10 frames are at negative saa_sep. In the baseline visits, frames at negative saa_sep are unbiased (\u22120.001 \u00b1 0.043).\n- *The \"slow decline within the visit\".* I fitted the 8 clean frames (nb = 1, qual_frame > 0):\n  - W1 slope is +0.083 \u00b1 0.022 mag/d and W2 is +0.008 \u00b1 0.057.\n  - Fitted the same way, the 19 baseline visits have W1 slopes with rms 0.041 mag/d, reaching \u00b10.093. So this slope is **2\u03c3 and not a detection**.\n  - **The decline is not established.**\n- **Result: the NEOWISE brightening is real photometry of this source, not a frame-, scan- or calibration-level artifact.**\n\n**2. Association and blends (b1, b5).**\n- *Centroid.* The event-visit mean offset from the Gaia position is (\u22120.042 \u00b1 0.025, \u22120.200 \u00b1 0.024)\". The 19 baseline visits average (\u22120.056 \u00b1 0.040, \u22120.152 \u00b1 0.040)\".\n  - The change is < 0.1\" at 2\u03c3. The extra light is 49% of the event flux, so its source lies **within \u2248 0.2\" of the giant**.\n  - The constant \u22120.15 to \u22120.20\" Dec offset is present in every visit. It is the 2016\u21922020 proper motion (\u03bc\u03b4 = \u221211.7 mas/yr) plus a fixed frame offset, not a sign of a blend.\n- *Gaia neighbours.* The 9.7\" neighbour (G = 19.94, BP\u2212RP 1.72, ipd_frac_multi_peak 1) would have to brighten by about 6 mag in W1. It would also move the centroid by \u2248 4.7\", against an observed shift < 0.1\". Excluded.\n  - The next Gaia sources out to 30\" are G = 18.2-20.5, at 15.8\" and beyond.\n  - Gaia DR3 for the target itself: RUWE 1.00, ipd_frac_multi_peak 0, ipd_gof_harmonic_amplitude 0.045, non_single_star 0.\n- *WISE neighbours.* No AllWISE source lies within 15\". The nearest is W1 16.8 at 15.4\" (W1\u2212W2 = +0.57, the only red source within 30\"). The nearest bright one is W1 10.98 at 31.7\".\n  The target's AllWISE W1\u2212W2 is \u22120.03, and W3/W4 are upper limits. No red WISE source is blended with it.\n\n**3. The ZTF tail (b3, b9).** The tail is real and it is achromatic.\n- *Data.* All 2020 ZTF points come from one field, CCD and quadrant: 285 / 15 / 2. The second field (1327 / 6 / 2) has only 16 points, in 2021-2022.\n  - The 2020 season starts on **Jun 18**. There is no ZTF point between 2019 Nov 5 and 2020 Jun 18, so ZTF never saw the peak.\n- *Comparison stars.* I downloaded the IRSA DR light curves of everything within 3.6' at 14.3-16.8 mag: 82 comparison objects in the same quadrant, 12 of them matched in colour (g\u2212r within 0.25 of the target's 0.77).\n  - On each 2020 Jun-Jul exposure, their median offset is between \u22120.011 and +0.015.\n  - After subtracting it, the target is at **\u22120.149 (g) / \u22120.168 (r) on Jun 18**, \u22120.131 (r) on Jun 24 and \u22120.122 (r) on Jul 2. On Jul 14-21 it is at \u22120.083 to \u22120.105 in both bands.\n- *Uniqueness.* Over 2020 Jun 9-Jul 23, the target is the only one of 35 g-band and 49 r-band stars whose median offset is \u2264 \u22120.08.\n  The other stars have a median offset of 0.000 (g) and \u22120.004 (r), with MAD 0.007 and 0.005.\n  In the same calendar window of 2018, 2019 and 2021-2025, the corrected offsets are \u22120.003 to +0.010.\n- *Colour.* On Jul 14-21, \u0394g = \u22120.092 and \u0394r = \u22120.091 (corrected), so the extra light has g\u2212r = 0.76 \u00b1 0.15, the same as the star.\n  A hot transient (g\u2212r \u2248 0) would give \u0394g \u2248 2\u0394r, which is excluded at \u2248 5\u03c3. On Jun 18 the extra light has g\u2212r = 0.63 \u00b1 0.15.\n- *Before and after.* In 2020 Oct 6-28 the corrected offsets are \u22120.00 to \u22120.03 (median \u22120.02). In 2019 Oct 20-Nov 5 they are \u22120.01 to \u22120.026.\n  Both are consistent with a lensing wing (the model gives \u22120.01 at both epochs).\n- The README's range needs correcting. \"0.10-0.18\" understates the low end. With catflags = 0, the raw offsets are \u22120.08 to \u22120.18\n  (g \u22120.082 on Jul 21). After the comparison-star correction they are \u22120.083 to \u22120.168.\n\n**4. Physics: what else could add light of the star's own colour for about 3 months? (b5, b7; IRSA dust)**\n- *The star.* Gaia DR3 gives G = 15.40, BP\u2212RP 1.26, parallax 0.040 \u00b1 0.041 and proper motion (\u22124.31, \u221211.70) mas/yr.\n  - SFD/S&F E(B\u2212V) is 0.087, so A_G \u2248 0.23 and the intrinsic BP\u2212RP is \u2248 1.14. That makes the star **a K giant at Teff \u2248 4,900 K, not 5,840 K**.\n    GSP-Phot's A_G = 0.84 is 3.6\u00d7 the dust map, the usual extinction-temperature degeneracy.\n  - The parallax puts it beyond about 6 kpc (2\u03c3, including the zero point). There, 12.5 mas/yr means v_t \u2273 350 km/s, so this is a **halo giant**.\n    FLAME's 2.8 M\u2609 and 0.46 Gyr are meaningless for it. MSC distance_msc = 939 pc is the usual MSC failure for a single giant.\n  - ESP-ELS H\u03b1 pEW is +0.013 nm (no emission).\n- *Flare (RS CVn or otherwise).* The extra W1 light equals the giant's own W1 light (about 50-75 L\u2609 in total) for \u2265 5 days. With the giant's own colour that is \u2273 10\u2074\u00b9 erg; if hot, 10\u2074\u00b2\u207b\u2074\u00b3 erg.\n  ZTF also shows \u2265 9% extra light 70-100 days later. No stellar flare does this. Excluded.\n- *A dwarf nova or nova within 0.2\" (foreground or background).*\n  - Peak W1 \u2248 13.1 needs M_W1 \u2248 +2-4 for a dwarf nova, i.e. one at 0.6-1.5 kpc that happens to lie within 0.2\" of the giant.\n  - The NEOWISE colour does **not** exclude it: a Rayleigh-Jeans source changes the colour by only +0.03, inside the \u22120.022 \u00b1 0.035 observed. Free-free emission from a nova or symbiotic would change it by \u2273 +0.2, which is excluded.\n  - The tail excludes the dwarf nova. A disk in decline or a WZ Sge-type echo would add blue light (\u0394g \u2248 2\u0394r), and the extra light is the star's colour at \u2248 5\u03c3.\n  - A dwarf nova would also produce other outbursts. There are none in 20 NEOWISE visits or 7 years of ZTF (rms 0.010 with catflags = 0).\n- *A supernova behind the star.* W1 \u2248 13 at peak needs \u2272 20 Mpc. The host would be a large galaxy, but there is no extended AllWISE source (ext_flg 0) and Gaia shows only stars within 30\".\n  The supernova would also have been V \u2248 12-13 and surely reported (see 6). Excluded.\n- *Intrinsic variability of the giant.* NEOWISE is flat to 0.02 over 2014-2024 apart from this visit, ZTF r rms is 0.010 (catflags = 0), and the star is not variable in Gaia DR3.\n  No pulsation or spot cycle gives a single achromatic \u00d72 in a K giant. Excluded.\n\n**5. Microlensing plausibility (b7, b8, b10).**\n- *Point-lens fit.* I fitted per-exposure NEOWISE W1/W2 (19 baseline visits plus the event) and ZTF g/r for 2018 Oct-2022 Jan, comparison-corrected and with a 0.012 mag floor.\n  - **\u03c7\u00b2 = 229 for 423 points. t0 = MJD 58949.5 (2020 Apr 10), tE = 55.6 d, u0 = 0.575, A_max = 1.95. No blending.**\n  - Profile ranges (\u0394\u03c7\u00b2 < 4): **t0 = Apr 2-17**, so the NEOWISE visit sits on the peak, not after it. **tE \u2248 48-62 d**; tE = 40 is at \u0394\u03c7\u00b2 = +54 and tE = 80 at +325.\n  - Freeing the source fractions improves \u03c7\u00b2 by only 4.8 for 2 parameters (fs_W 0.12, fs_ZTF 0.60, u0 0.11). They are unconstrained.\n  - Without the Apr 14 frame, t0 is Apr 12 and tE 54 d.\n- *What the investigators claimed.* \"Peaking before Apr 9 with tE ~ 50 d\" is half right: the tE is right, but the peak is Apr 10 \u00b1 7 d.\n  - The best fit is flat across the visit. The Apr 14 frame (W1 \u00d71.74) is 2.6\u03c3 below it, while its W2 (\u00d72.00) is not.\n  - The ZTF tail does not prove the shape on its own. A ZTF-only fit is degenerate (t0 May 8, u0 1.2) and predicts only \u00d71.18 at the NEOWISE epoch.\n  - The two data sets agree jointly, but the peak is sampled by one day of NEOWISE.\n- *Checks against data the fit did not target.* The model predicts A = 1.017 at the 2020 Sep NEOWISE visit; observed W1 \u00d71.027, W2 \u00d71.019.\n  It predicts \u22120.01 mag for ZTF in 2019 Nov and 2020 Oct; observed \u22120.02 \u00b1 0.01. The ZTF Jun 18-Jul 21 pulls are within \u00b12.\n- *Rate on this sightline.* With the same disc and bulge model as the first referee, plus a stellar halo: **\u03c4 \u2248 9\u00d710\u207b\u2078** for D_S = 8.4 kpc (5.5\u00d710\u207b\u2078 at 6 kpc).\n  - That is 8\u00d7 the J040025 sightline. With tE = 55 d, \u0393 \u2248 4\u00d710\u207b\u2077 per star per year.\n  - The chance that one snapshot of this star shows A \u2265 1.96 is \u03c4u\u00b2 = 3\u00d710\u207b\u2078, or 6\u00d710\u207b\u2077 over its 20 visits.\n  - Pass 3 tested 64.5 M faint stars over about 20 visits each. With a sky-averaged \u03c4\u0304 of 1-3\u00d710\u207b\u2078, about **4-13 such snapshots are expected**, before the pipeline's cuts.\n  - So a microlensing event among the faint stars is **expected**. Finding one is not a coincidence that needs explaining. If anything, finding only one says pass 3 is incomplete.\n- *Plausible lens.* With \u03bc_rel \u2248 5-10 mas/yr, tE = 56 d means \u03b8E \u2248 0.8-1.5 mas. A 0.1-0.5 M\u2609 disc dwarf at 0.5-2 kpc fits.\n\n**6. Novelty.**\n\n- *VSX* (vizier.idia.ac.za, 120\"): **no entry.** VizieR variable catalogues within 30\" have no rows: ASAS-SN variables II/366, ATLAS variables J/AJ/156/241,\n  ZTF periodic J/ApJS/249/18, and Gaia DR3 vari I/358 (vclassre, varisum).\n  The star is `NOT_AVAILABLE` in phot_variable_flag (n1).\n- *TNS*: nothing within 60\". Within 15' there is only AT 2016cmb (PS16cmg, 2016-05-16, w = 20.4, 7.5' away), which is unrelated (n2).\n- *SIMBAD* (CfA mirror): no object within 30\". The CDS host timed out (n4).\n- *Gaia alerts* (`../H-0005/alerts.csv`, 27,076 rows): the nearest alert is Gaia19fiq at 0.60\u00b0 (2019 Nov, \"red source rises by 0.3 mag over 2 years\"). No 2020 alert lies within 2.1\u00b0 (n3).\n- *Microlensing surveys and the web*:\n  - KMTNet 2020: none of its 894 events is within 17\u00b0 (n5).\n  - OGLE EWS has no 2020-2021 season, and the field is outside the bulge footprint anyway.\n  - The MOA 2020 page returned an empty table.\n  - Web and ATel searches for the Gaia id, both designations and the coordinates found nothing.\n- *ASAS-SN*: Sky Patrol id 360778295746 exists, but the light-curve service is down (banner dated 2026-10-13), so the 2020 photometry is unread (n8).\n- **Gaia looked during the event (GOST, n6/n7, `gost_2019oct-2020dec.csv`).** It transited the star on 2020 **Feb 28** (2 transits), **Mar 12** (3) and **Apr 17** (1).\n  - The best fit predicts \u0394G = **\u22120.35, \u22120.49 and \u22120.71** at those transits (b11). The t0 = Apr 2 and t0 = Apr 17 solutions give \u22120.26 to \u22120.75.\n  - No Gaia alert was issued. But Gaia's alert stream did process this region in that scan: it raised Gaia20bcr 2.2\u00b0 away on 2020 Feb 29.\n    It also alerts on changes this small elsewhere (Gaia19fiq, 0.3 mag; Gaia21bbo, 0.5 mag).\n  - So the silence is mild evidence against. I put the likelihood ratio at about 0.6-0.8, since the published alert criteria and human vetting usually reject 0.3-0.7 mag changes on a single scan of a quiet star.\n  - These transits are in **DR5**, not DR4. DR4 ends 2020 Jan 20; its last transits (2019 Nov 23-29) are predicted at only \u22120.03 to \u22120.05 and test nothing.\n- Unreported as of 2026-10-29, as far as these sources go.\n\n**7. Untapped data.**\n- ATLAS task 5271652 (`~/oddsky-runs/h0007/atlas_J193353_task.log`) has not finished: `atlas_J193353.txt` does not exist. I did not submit anything.\n  ATLAS (02a/01a) observed RA 19.5h in 2020 Mar-Apr mornings and is the best optical test of the peak.\n- There is no ZTF between 2019 Nov 5 and 2020 Jun 18.\n- Gaia DR4 ends 2020 Jan 20, so the Gaia epoch photometry will at best catch the rising wing (on 2020 Jan 20 the best fit predicts A \u2248 1.12, \u0394G \u2248 \u22120.12).\n- ASAS-SN (id 360778295746): the service is down. At g \u2248 16.1 a 0.7 mag brightening is well above its limit.\n- KMTNet, OGLE and MOA do not cover l = 18\u00b0, b = \u221218.6\u00b0. I did not check TESS coverage of 2020 Mar-May.\n\n## Most plausible mundane explanation remaining\n\nNone of the mundane explanations tested fits the data:\n- An artifact is excluded by 2,021 controls in the same frames and by the independent ZTF tail.\n- A blend is excluded by the < 0.1\" centroid shift and the absence of neighbours within 9.7\".\n- A hot transient (flare, dwarf nova, nova) is excluded by the star-coloured ZTF tail and by energetics.\n- A supernova is excluded by the absence of any host.\n\nWhat remains is an unknown, slow (months-long), colour-neutral brightening of the halo giant itself that happens to mimic a point lens.\nNo such class is known for a quiet K giant. Most of the 0.08 comes from how thinly the light curve is sampled: one day at the peak, no\noptical before Jun 18, and three Gaia transits that raised no alert. It does not come from any specific rival model.\n\n## Required wording changes\n\n1. Heading \"The second microlensing candidate\": keep \"candidate\". Do not call it an \"event\" or \"detected microlensing\" until ATLAS or ASAS-SN shows the peak.\n2. \"A G/K giant (Teff 5,840 K, log g 3.0, R \u2248 8.5 R\u2609), about 8 kpc away\" should become:\n   \"a K giant (BP\u2212RP 1.26; with E(B\u2212V) = 0.087 from S&F, Teff \u2248 4,900 K; GSP-Phot's 5,840 K assumes A_G = 0.84, 3.6\u00d7 the dust map). The parallax\n   puts it beyond \u2248 6 kpc, and with \u03bc = 12.5 mas/yr that is v_t \u2273 350 km/s: a halo giant.\" Drop R \u2248 8.5 R\u2609 and the FLAME mass and age.\n3. \"all 12 exposures were \u00d71.96 brighter (\u0394W1 \u22120.75, \u0394W2 \u22120.74)\" should become \"12 frames from 10 scans were \u00d71.98 brighter in both bands\n   (\u0394W1 = \u0394W2 = \u22120.74 against a 19-visit baseline).\" Add: \"2,021 stars within 20' measured in the same frames and the adjacent visits are unchanged\n   (W1 12.6-13.6: +0.010, MAD 0.025); the target is the only one beyond \u22120.3 mag.\"\n4. **Delete \"The visit shows a slow decline\".** The W1 slope over 8 clean frames is +0.083 \u00b1 0.022 mag/d, inside the \u00b10.09 mag/d range of the star's own baseline visits (rms 0.041).\n   W2 is +0.008 \u00b1 0.057. The best-fit lens is flat across the visit.\n5. \"one exposure 4 days later is still \u00d71.75\" should become: \"one moon-masked frame on Apr 14 (Moon 6\u00b0 away) gives W1 \u00d71.74 and W2 \u00d72.00 \u00b1 0.30.\n   Its controls are normal, but it is 2.6\u03c3 below the best-fit lens in W1 and should not be used as evidence of a decline.\"\n6. \"0.10-0.18 mag brighter \u2026 and fading\" should become: \"after correcting each exposure with 12 colour-matched stars in the same ZTF exposures\n   (field/CCD/quadrant 285/15/2; they move \u2264 0.015), the target is 0.17 (Jun 18) to 0.08-0.10 mag (Jul 14-21) bright, and achromatic (\u0394g = \u0394r to 0.01, so the extra light has g\u2212r =\n   0.76 \u00b1 0.15, the star's own colour). It is the only one of 35 g and 49 r stars in that quadrant beyond \u22120.08. ZTF has no data between\n   2019 Nov 5 and 2020 Jun 18.\"\n7. The interpretation \"peaking before 2020 Apr 9 with tE ~ 50 d\" should become: \"a point-lens fit to NEOWISE + ZTF (comparison-corrected) gives\n   t0 = 2020 Apr 10 (\u0394\u03c7\u00b2 < 4: Apr 2-17), tE = 56 d (48-62 d), u0 = 0.575, A_max \u2248 1.95, \u03c7\u00b2 229/423, with no blending needed. The NEOWISE visit is at the peak.\n   The model also matches the 2020 Sep NEOWISE visit (\u00d71.02) and ZTF 2019 Nov and 2020 Oct (\u22120.01 to \u22120.02).\"\n8. \"Not in VSX, TNS or the Gaia alerts\" should add: \"SIMBAD: nothing within 30\". Gaia transited it on 2020 Feb 28, Mar 12 and Apr 17 (predicted \u0394G \u22120.35,\n   \u22120.49, \u22120.71) without an alert; those epochs are in DR5. ASAS-SN (id 360778295746) is unread (service down); KMTNet, OGLE and MOA do not cover it.\"\n9. \"The event falls after Gaia DR4's window\" should read: \"DR4 (to 2020 Jan 20) only reaches the far wing (predicted \u0394G \u22120.03 to \u22120.05 in 2019 Nov); Gaia DR5 has the three event transits.\"\n10. Add the rate: \"\u03c4 \u2248 9\u00d710\u207b\u2078 on this sightline (8\u00d7 J040025's). Pass 3 should have caught a few A \u2273 2 snapshots among its 64.5 M faint stars, so one candidate is expected, not lucky.\"\n11. The link `J193353.md` points to a file that does not exist. Write it or remove the link.\n12. Ladder status: **candidate**. It goes to *reproduced* only when ATLAS or ASAS-SN shows the 2020 Mar-May peak.\n\n## Decisive follow-ups\n\n1. **ATLAS task 5271652** (already queued; do not resubmit). The lens predicts an achromatic, symmetric event in o and c:\n   \u22120.36 mag on Mar 1, \u22120.69 on Apr 1, \u22120.72 on Apr 10, \u22120.58 on May 1, \u22120.42 on May 15 and \u22120.27 on Jun 1 (b11).\n   - Flat Mar-May photometry kills the lens and makes this a NEOWISE-plus-ZTF puzzle.\n   - A symmetric curve with tE \u2248 50-60 d and o = c confirms it.\n2. ASAS-SN Sky Patrol 360778295746 once the service returns (g, 2020 Feb-Jun).\n3. Gaia DR5 epoch photometry for 2020 Feb 28, Mar 12 and Apr 17: predicted \u0394G \u22120.35, \u22120.49 and \u22120.71, with equal BP and RP changes.\n\n## Tool fixes\n\n- `scripts/hunt_h0007_faint.py`:\n  - Report per-visit slopes against the star's own baseline-visit slope distribution. A 2\u03c3 slope must not be called a \"slow decline\".\n  - Keep moon-masked frames out of any claim. The Apr 14 frame passed into the README because it is outside the visit statistic.\n- ZTF: always correct each target epoch with comparison stars from the same exposure (expid) and quadrant, as b9 does.\n  - The IRSA light-curve service with `POS=CIRCLE \u2026 0.06` and `MAG=14.3 16.8` returns them in about 4 minutes.\n  - Quote the corrected ranges.\n- Point-lens fits should combine NEOWISE exposures with the ZTF (or ATLAS) baseline and report profile ranges for t0 and tE.\n  The phrase \"peaking before Apr 9\" came from the in-visit slope, which carries no information here.\n- `oddsky.data.gaia`: use a dust map (S&F) as a sanity check on GSP-Phot A_G. A 3.6\u00d7 extinction excess makes the Teff (5,840 against \u2248 4,900 K) and the GSP-Phot distance unreliable.\n- `oddsky.data.atlas` lacks a status-only poll. A referee who must not resubmit can only check whether the output file exists.\n"},{"file":"claude-referee-J193353-atlas-2026-10-29.md","markdown":"# Referee report: J193353.06-211813.4, ATLAS follow-up (H-0007)\n\nAuthor: claude-referee, 2026-10-29. Scope: `work/atlas_J193353.txt` (task 5271652, reduced-image forced photometry, 3,943 frames\n2015-2026; identical to `~/oddsky-runs/h0007/atlas_J193353.txt`), `scripts/hunt_h0007_j193353_fit.py`, and the investigators' claims.\nI wrote my own scripts in `reviews/claude-referee-J193353-atlas-2026-10-29/` (a1-a8). They use pandas, scipy, MulensModel 3.12 and emcee,\noutside the Oddsky tools. Run a2 first, then a3. a3 also needs the first referee's `/tmp/j1933ref/target_exp.parquet` and `ztf_zoff.csv`\n(their b1, b3 and b9). a4-a8 read `/tmp/j1933atl/`.\n\n## Verdict\n\nATLAS reproduces the event. It is on the star, it is achromatic, and it looks like microlensing. Two units (01a, 02a) and both bands see it on 88\nnights, and ATLAS agrees with NEOWISE to 2% on Apr 8-10. **But the peak was in mid/late March, not on Apr 10, and it reached \u2265 \u00d72.4.**\nThat means the first referee's fit (t0 Apr 10 \u00b1 7 d, A 1.95) failed its detailed predictions. A static point lens, the investigators' model, also leaves a\nsystematic rise/decline asymmetry, seen the same way by ATLAS, NEOWISE and ZTF. Annual parallax removes it (\u0394\u03c7\u00b2 = 255 for 2 parameters)\nwith a physically ordinary lens. **P(mundane) = 0.02.** Ladder status: **reproduced**.\n\n## Attacks and results\n\n**1. Is it real and on the star? (a1, a2, a6, a7)**\n- *Coverage.* The 2020 event is observed by 01a (o, 47 nights) and 02a (o 18, c 23) only. 03a and 04a start in 2022.\n- *Per-unit baselines.* Baselines from 2015-2018 and 2021+ agree to 1.5%: o 2915-2959 \u00b5Jy, c 1823-1874 \u00b5Jy.\n  - A constant per-unit offset of that size cannot fake \u00d72.4.\n  - The two units measure the same excess: in o, the scale relative to the model is 0.994 \u00b1 0.007 for 01a and 1.036 \u00b1 0.014 for 02a.\n  - Consecutive nights from different units agree: Apr 8 01a \u00d72.03 vs Apr 10 02a \u00d71.99; May 14 01a \u00d71.30 vs May 16 02a \u00d71.29.\n- *Frame quality.* The event frames have normal depth (mag5sig 18.3-19.6) and errors of 20-50 \u00b5Jy.\n  - chi/N rises from a median of 2.4 to 6.1 (01a) and from 3.0 to 9.5 (02a). That is expected when the star is \u00d71.5-2.4 brighter: PSF mismatch scales with S/N.\n  - Baseline nights of this star also reach chi/N 20-45 (e.g. 2020 Sep 15 at \u00d71.01). This is not a sign of a blend.\n- *Reference/difference imaging.* Not applicable: this is PSF photometry on reduced images, with no reference. The only Gaia source within 15\" (G = 19.94 at 9.7\") is \u2264 1.6% of the flux.\n- *Dropout night.* On 2020 Jul 17 (01a) four frames read 0 \u00b1 0.1 of the flux at normal depth. This is a forced-photometry failure. The investigators' \"drop nights < 0.8\u00d7\" cut removes it, but the cut should name it.\n- *Other events.* Outside 2020, with good frames only (dujy < 150, mag5sig \u2265 17.5), 0 of 927 nights exceed \u00d71.10. The largest is 2023 Oct 21, 04a o \u00d71.099; 04a's baseline scatter is 0.026.\n  - The investigators' four \"> \u00d71.15 nights\" are all shallow frames (mag5sig 14.2-17.0).\n  - But only 2018 Nov 10 and 2023 Oct 30 have a normal frame on the same night. The 2022 Nov 8 frames (\u00d72.38 and \u00d7\u22120.01) and 2026 Oct 19 frames (\u00d70.63-1.46) are all shallow.\n- **Result: a single event on this star in 2015-2026.**\n\n**2. The peak and the parameters (a3, a4, a5)**\n- *What the data constrain.* Nothing between 2019 Nov 14 (\u00d71.013) and 2020 Mar 11 (\u00d72.42), then nothing until Apr 8 (\u00d72.03).\n  - The peak is therefore **\u2265 \u00d72.42 and unobserved**.\n  - Mar 11 > Apr 8 puts the peak before Mar 25 for any symmetric curve.\n- *The investigators' fit.* I reproduce it exactly: t0 58925.6, tE 62.7, u0 0.434, \u03c7\u00b2 352/190.\n  - Its formal errors (\u00b10.8 d, \u00b11.1 d, \u00b10.007) are not credible, because the residuals are structured.\n  - In the joint static fs = 1 fit (a4), the 2019 Sep-Nov rise wing sits **below** the model in ATLAS o (\u22120.024), NEOWISE W1 (\u22120.028) and ZTF g/r (\u22120.022/\u22120.020). The decline sits **above** it in Jun-Sep (+0.02 to +0.05 in c, o, g and r).\n  - The under-predicted NEOWISE (1.944 vs 1.98) and ZTF tail (1.124/1.061 vs 1.169/1.086) belong to this same pattern. They are not noise.\n  - The pattern is not a calendar systematic. In Oct-Nov of other years, o sits at 0.994-1.011 (2017-2026), and in Jun-Aug at 0.993-1.007.\n- *Blending (fs free).* Freeing blending cannot remove the asymmetry: the rise wing stays at \u22120.03.\n  - It opens the usual degeneracy instead: ATLAS alone gives fs 0.28-0.31, u0 0.13, tE 107 d, A_max 7.6, \u03c7\u00b2 330 against 419 for fs = 1.\n  - Jointly, fs = 0.34-0.37 in all three surveys, tE 92 d, \u03c7\u00b2 658/699 against 715/702.\n- *Annual parallax* (MulensModel, Earth-based; the star is 0.4\u00b0 from the ecliptic and peaked at 66\u00b0 elongation):\n  - Joint fit: \u03c7\u00b2 715 \u2192 **460/700** for fs = 1; 459/697 with fs free. ATLAS alone: 419 \u2192 244/277.\n  - With parallax the residuals are flat in every window and survey (|mean| \u2264 0.013, apart from the c band at +0.017).\n  - An ad hoc asymmetric Paczynski (separate tE before and after t0) reaches only 568. The parallax-specific shape is what fits.\n- *Joint MCMC* (parallax, one fs per survey, errors rescaled per survey; 95% ranges):\n  - t0 = MJD 58928.3-58929.8 (2020 Mar 20-21); tE = 40-55 d (median 45).\n  - u0 = \u00b1(0.25-0.40). The sign is two-fold degenerate, as expected near the ecliptic.\n  - \u03c0_E = 0.39-0.80 (\u03c0_E,E 0.37-0.70); fs = 0.60-1.04 in each survey, consistent with no blend.\n  - Observed peak \u00d72.66-2.94 (source A_max 2.6-4.1).\n- *Lens.* With \u03bc_rel 5-15 mas/yr, \u03b8E \u2248 0.6-1.8 mas, so M \u2248 0.13-0.4 M\u2609 and \u03c0_rel \u2248 0.3-1.0 mas, i.e. D_L \u2248 1-2 kpc.\n  An M dwarf there has G \u2248 20-23, consistent with fs \u2248 1. Nothing about the parallax solution is exotic.\n- **Honest ranges.**\n  - Peak date: 2020 Mar 17-22 across all models (data-only: Mar 11-25).\n  - Peak: \u00d72.45 (static) to \u00d72.9 (parallax); \u2265 \u00d72.42 measured.\n  - tE: 40-55 d (parallax). The static 62-63 d and blended 90-107 d are biased by the asymmetry.\n  - u0: 0.25-0.44 in absolute value.\n\n**3. Achromaticity (a6, a7).**\n- With the parallax shape fixed and a free baseline, the c (02a) excess is **1.05 \u00b1 0.03** times o. On the same unit, o 02a gives 1.036.\n- 01a and 02a differ by 4% in o, so ATLAS's unit-to-unit systematics are about this size. The c 02a seasonal zero point wanders by 0.95-1.03 (2015 is low).\n- Across instruments: ATLAS o \u00d72.03/1.99 (Apr 8/10) matches NEOWISE W1 = W2 \u00d71.98, and ZTF g = r on the tail to 0.01. **Achromatic from g to W2 to \u2248 5%.**\n\n**4. Shape against transient decays (a8).** The fits use the ATLAS decline only, 2020 Mar 11 to Nov (90 nights).\n- *Fits.* Exponential excess: \u03c7\u00b2 413/88. Power law from a peak \u2264 Mar 11: 728/87. Static lens: 181/87. Parallax lens: 79/85.\n- *The decline rate is not monotonic.* d ln(excess)/dt is \u22120.013/d from Mar 11 to Apr 10, then \u22120.034/d to May 5, \u22120.022/d to Jun 3, and \u22120.019 to \u22120.024/d through Aug.\n  - It accelerates after the first month. A flare, eruption or background transient that peaked by Mar 11 decelerates.\n  - This curvature, flat-topped and then steepening, is the lens signature.\n- *No rise data.* The only constraint on the rise is the 2019 wing (excess \u2264 0.02 at about \u2212130 d), which is what drives the parallax.\n- An R CrB-like recovery has the wrong sign: there is no dip anywhere in 2015-2026.\n\n**5. Contradictions with the first referee.**\n- *Their fit (t0 Apr 10, Apr 2-17; A_max 1.95; \"the NEOWISE visit is at the peak\") is wrong.* The peak was about 3 weeks earlier and \u2265 \u00d72.4.\n  - Mar 11: the old model gives \u22120.48 mag; ATLAS measured \u22120.96.\n  - May 15: it predicted \u22120.42; ATLAS measured \u22120.28 (\u00d71.30).\n  - Apr 10: it predicted \u22120.72; ATLAS measured \u22120.75. This one passed.\n  - The investigators' original \"peaking before Apr 9\" was right in substance.\n- *Their deletion of the \"slow decline within the visit\" still stands.* The lens declines at 0.019 mag/d on Apr 8-12 (ATLAS \u00d72.03 \u2192 \u00d71.89), but the W1 slope is 0.083 \u00b1 0.022.\n- *The Apr 14 moon-masked frame* (W1 \u00d71.74, W2 \u00d72.00) brackets ATLAS's \u00d71.83 interpolated between Apr 12 and Apr 16. It is still not evidence.\n- *Gaia.* The new predictions are \u0394G = **\u22120.62 (Feb 28, 2 transits), \u22120.98 (Mar 12, 3 transits), \u22120.60 (Apr 17)** (95% \u00b10.05). The old ones were \u22120.35/\u22120.49/\u22120.71.\n  - Hodgkin et al. 2021 (A&A 652, A76, \u00a72.6) defines two detectors. OldSourceDeltaMag needs \u2265 2 transits \u2265 1 mag (and \u2265 3\u03c3) from the historic mean within 40 d. OldSourceMeanRms needs \u2265 0.15 mag and \u2265 6\u03c3.\n  - So DeltaMag was borderline and MeanRms should have raised a candidate. It was then lost to GoF or neighbour filtering or to vetting.\n  - ATLAS measured \u00d72.42 one day before the Mar 12 transit. The silence therefore says nothing against the brightening; it bears only on the completeness of Gaia's alerts.\n  - I now put its likelihood ratio at about 1, not 0.6-0.8.\n\n**6. Novelty.** Nothing new was searched. Gaia and ATLAS both had this event in their data and neither reported it.\nASAS-SN is still unread, and MOA 2020 is still unchecked.\n\n## Most plausible mundane explanation remaining\n\nAn unknown achromatic, months-long brightening of a quiet halo K giant that mimics a parallax point lens: a decline that\naccelerates and then decelerates, a \u00d72.5-3 peak, and nothing else in 11 years. No known class does this.\n\nThe residual 0.02 comes from three things:\n- The peak and the rise are unobserved.\n- The parallax detection rests on a 2-3% wing deficit in 2019 Oct-Nov, although four instruments agree on it.\n- A binary lens or xallarap could also produce asymmetry. That changes the parameters, not the mundane/astrophysical verdict.\n\n## Required wording changes (`J193353.md`, the README paragraph, and the investigators' fit claims)\n\n1. **Status: \"candidate\" becomes \"reproduced (ATLAS, 2026-10-29)\".** Still not announced and not a case.\n2. **Title:** change \"doubled in brightness in April 2020\" to \"brightened \u00d72.4 or more in March 2020\".\n3. **Add an Observed (ATLAS) bullet:**\n   > Reduced-image forced photometry, 88 nights in 2020 from units 01a and 02a, in o and c: \u00d72.42 on Mar 11 (first night of the season); \u00d72.03 Apr 8; \u00d71.99 Apr 10;\n   > \u00d71.65 Apr 20-22; \u00d71.30 May 14-16; \u00d71.10 in July; \u00d71.05 in Sep; within 2% by Oct. Per-unit baselines agree to 1.5%, the two units measure the\n   > same excess to 4%, c/o = 1.05 \u00b1 0.03, and no other night in 2015-2026 exceeds \u00d71.10 in good frames.\n4. **Replace the referee's \"Computed\" fit bullet** (t0 Apr 10, A 1.95, \"the NEOWISE visit is at the peak\"). Those were superseded and failed their ATLAS predictions on Mar 11 and May 15. Use:\n   > The peak (Mar 11 to Apr 8) is unobserved. A static point lens (t0 Mar 17, tE 63 d, u0 0.43, \u00d72.46) leaves a rise/decline asymmetry seen\n   > identically in ATLAS, NEOWISE and ZTF. Annual parallax removes it (joint \u03c7\u00b2 715 \u2192 460, ATLAS alone 419 \u2192 244). Its 95% ranges are: t0 2020 Mar 20-21,\n   > tE 40-55 d, |u0| 0.25-0.40, \u03c0_E 0.39-0.80, fs 0.6-1.04, observed peak \u00d72.66-2.94.\n5. **The investigators' fit claims.** Do not quote \"t0 = 58925.6 \u00b1 0.8, tE = 62.7 \u00b1 1.1, u0 = 0.434 \u00b1 0.007, A_max 2.46\" as the result or with those errors.\n   - \"NEOWISE predicted 1.944 vs 1.98, ZTF 1.124/1.061 vs 1.169/1.086\" must be described as a systematic under-prediction that parallax removes. It is not \"agreement\".\n   - \"c and o residual means 0.015/0.009\" should become \"c/o excess 1.05 \u00b1 0.03 (unit systematics about 4%)\".\n   - Change \"baseline by Oct\" to \"within 2% by Oct\".\n6. **The four > \u00d71.15 nights:** change \"with normal frames the same night\" to \"all shallow frames (mag5sig 14-17); two of the four nights have a normal frame\n   at baseline, the other two have only shallow frames, scattering both ways.\" Name the 2020 Jul 17 01a zero-flux dropout instead of hiding it in the 0.8\u00d7 cut.\n7. **Gaia:** change \"predicted \u0394G \u22120.35, \u22120.49, \u22120.71\" (both places) to \"\u22120.6 (Feb 28), \u22121.0 (Mar 12), \u22120.6 (Apr 17)\". Add:\n   > This is above the OldSourceMeanRms threshold (\u2265 0.15 mag, \u2265 6\u03c3) and at the DeltaMag one (\u2265 1 mag), so the absence of an alert reflects Gaia\n   > alert completeness. ATLAS measured \u00d72.42 the day before.\n8. **Alternatives:** change \"would not decay smoothly over three months\" and \"fits both data sets with no free blending\" to:\n   > The decline accelerates (d ln excess/dt \u22120.013 \u2192 \u22120.034/d) and then slows. Exponential and power-law decays fit it with \u03c7\u00b2 413 and 728,\n   > against 79 for the parallax lens (90 nights). A blend is not needed (fs 0.6-1.04).\n9. **Next steps:** remove the ATLAS prediction paragraph, which has been tested. Keep ASAS-SN and Gaia DR5 with the new numbers (follow-ups below).\n10. **Assessment:** \"Real and astrophysical: very high (NEOWISE, ZTF and ATLAS; P(mundane) 0.02). Microlensing: very likely, probably with\n    annual parallax; peak and rise unobserved.\"\n\n## Decisive follow-ups\n\n1. **ASAS-SN** (id 360778295746), g in 2020 Feb 15-Mar 25: the only survey that may have the rise and the peak.\n   - The parallax and static models differ by about 0.17 mag on Feb 28: \u0394G \u22120.62 against \u22120.79.\n   - The parallax model predicts the peak on Mar 20-21 at \u22121.1 mag (\u00d72.7-2.9).\n2. **Gaia DR5 epoch photometry:** predicted \u0394G \u22120.62, \u22120.98 and \u22120.60, with BP = RP. The Feb 28 point tests the parallax-induced rise.\n\n## Tool fixes\n\n- `hunt_h0007_j193353_fit.py` needs four changes:\n  - Report profile ranges, not covariance errors, when the peak is unsampled.\n  - Always try annual parallax (and fs free) and print wing residuals by season.\n  - Use per-unit baselines.\n  - Fit the 2019 wing explicitly, because it is the only rise information.\n- `oddsky.data.atlas.nightly_bins`: flag zero-flux dropouts and shallow frames (mag5sig < 17.5) explicitly, not with a ratio cut that would also delete a real fade.\n- Referee practice: a prediction from a fit whose peak is pinned by one survey epoch (here NEOWISE) should carry the profile range of the peak date, not \u0394\u03c7\u00b2 < 4 alone.\n  The first referee's Apr 2-17 range was 2-3 weeks off.\n"}]}