{"case":{"id":"OS-0016","title":"A red giant toward the Galactic anticentre brightened sevenfold for a few weeks in 2017: a microlensing event","hook":"Found in Oddsky hunt H-0007 as a one-visit, colour-neutral 2.7x brightening in NEOWISE (2017 Aug 27-28); ATLAS shows a single smooth event peaking near 2017 Sep 16. Not in VSX, TNS, the Gaia alerts or Gaia DR3.","status":"reproduced","target":{"name":"Gaia DR3 170329679884731008","ra":60.1073758,"dec":32.5909576,"aliases":[],"gaia_source_id":170329679884731008},"summary":"A red-clump K giant at about 3 kpc toward the Galactic anticentre (l = 163, b = -15) brightened in a single smooth event in 2017: x2.7 in NEOWISE W1 and W2 on Aug 27-28 (equal in both bands), and in ATLAS from early August to early November, peaking near Sep 13-16 at about x7. Nothing similar in 2014-2026. A symmetric point-lens curve is rejected; annual parallax fits (tE 47-56 d, |piE| 0.6-1.6, a candidate measurement). Two referee passes: P(not microlensing) = 0.05. The lens mass is not measured. Not in VSX, TNS, SIMBAD, the Gaia alerts or Gaia DR3. Gaia DR4 (Dec 2026) should show it.","claims":[{"id":"C1","text":"In the NEOWISE visit of 2017 Aug 27-28 (MJD 57992.6-57993.5) the star was 1.087 mag brighter in W1 (10.036 against a baseline median of 11.123) and 1.072 mag brighter in W2 (10.131 against 11.202): factors of 2.72 and 2.68, equal within 0.02 mag. In the 13 single exposures the factors are 2.731 and 2.716 (hunts/H-0007).","tag":"observed","calls":["K1","K2"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T15:48:50+00:00"},{"id":"C2","text":"Apart from that visit, NEOWISE W1 is flat over 21 visits (2014-2024) with a robust scatter of 0.007 mag.","tag":"computed","calls":["K3"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T15:48:50+00:00"},{"id":"C3","text":"ATLAS o (2015 Oct - 2026 Oct, 2,911 frames) contains exactly one excursion beyond max(5 sigma, 0.2 mag): a brightening from MJD 57970.6 to 58063.5 (2017 Aug 5 - Nov 6) peaking on MJD 58009.6 (2017 Sep 13) at 2.13 mag (x7.1) above baseline. On the night of the NEOWISE visit ATLAS o was 1.13 mag (x2.8) above baseline.","tag":"observed","calls":["K4","K5"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T15:48:50+00:00"},{"id":"C4","text":"ZTF r (2018 Jul - 2025 Aug, 869 points) is flat with a robust scatter of 0.011 mag.","tag":"computed","calls":["K6"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T15:48:50+00:00"},{"id":"C5","text":"No Gaia DR3 source within 6\" contributes more than 0.6% of the target's G flux; the nearest comparable star (G = 15.9) is 15.3\" away, outside the NEOWISE beam.","tag":"observed","calls":["K7"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T15:48:50+00:00"},{"id":"C6","text":"A symmetric point-lens curve is rejected (chi2 462/69 against 98/67 with annual parallax) by a joint ATLAS + NEOWISE fit (scripts/hunt_h0007_lensfit.py, outside the Oddsky tools). The asymmetry appears in both ATLAS units and survives every systematics variant a referee tried. Parallax model: t0 = MJD 58012.2, tE = 47.7 or 51.8 d (u0 sign), A_max about 7; pi_E,par = 0.62 is robust, |piE| = 0.6-1.6 (hunts/H-0007/reviews/claude-referee-2-2026-10-29.md).","tag":"computed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T15:48:50+00:00"},{"id":"C7","text":"A hot additive source (flare, accretion disk) supplying 63% of the light during the NEOWISE visit would make W1-W2 redder by about 0.06 mag; the observed change is -0.01 to -0.02 mag. A flare of that size on a 33 Lsun giant is not physical.","tag":"inferred","calls":["K1","K2"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T15:48:50+00:00"},{"id":"C8","text":"Not found (2026-10-29) in VSX (6\"), TNS (60\"), SIMBAD (CfA mirror, 30\"), the Gaia Science Alerts, Gaia DR3 vari_microlensing (which ends 2017 May) or a web search; no ATLAS17 designation. ADS not checked. Gaia observed the star on 2017 Jul 27, Aug 22 and Sep 18 (one field of view) without alerting.","tag":"observed","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T15:48:50+00:00"},{"id":"C9","text":"The lens mass is not measured: theta_E is unknown. Along the mass-distance relation the lens is 0.1-0.65 Msun at 0.5 kpc or 0.04-0.26 Msun at 1 kpc, most likely an M dwarf within about 1 kpc.","tag":"inferred","calls":[],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T15:48:50+00:00"}],"hypotheses":[{"id":"H1","klass":"microlensing","statement":"A foreground star (probably an M dwarf within ~1 kpc) passed within ~0.14 Einstein radii of the red-clump giant, magnifying it about sevenfold; the asymmetry is most likely annual parallax.","supports":["C1","C2","C3","C4","C6","C7"],"conflicts":[],"would_falsify":"Gaia DR4 epoch photometry flat on 2017 Sep 18, or different BP and RP amplitudes; any repeat brightening.","status":"live","confidence":0.95,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T15:48:50+00:00"},{"id":"H2","klass":"eruptive","statement":"An unseen companion (accreting white dwarf, flare star) had an outburst lasting about three months.","supports":[],"conflicts":["C7","C6"],"would_falsify":"A colour change during the event, or a repeat.","status":"live","confidence":0.03,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T15:48:50+00:00"},{"id":"H3","klass":"artifact_instrumental","statement":"A NEOWISE or ATLAS artifact.","supports":[],"conflicts":["C1","C3"],"would_falsify":"Already falsified: two independent instruments see the same event on the same night.","status":"rejected","confidence":0.01,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T15:48:50+00:00"},{"id":"H4","klass":"artifact_blend","statement":"A neighbouring source brightened.","supports":[],"conflicts":["C5","C1"],"would_falsify":"Already falsified: no neighbour within 6\" is brighter than 0.6% of the target, and the NEOWISE centroid stayed on the star.","status":"rejected","confidence":0.01,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-29T15:48:50+00:00"}],"predictions":[{"id":"P1","hypothesis":"H1","statement":"Gaia DR4 epoch photometry will show the star at least 1.0 mag brighter in G on its brightest night between 2017 Jul 20 and Sep 23 (Gaia transits on Jul 27, Aug 22 and Sep 18) than its 2014-2017 median. The microlensing models predict -0.40, -0.88 and -2.07 mag on those 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Gaia TAP gaiadr3.gaia_source","query":{"adql":"SELECT source_id, ra, dec, parallax, parallax_over_error, pmra, pmdec, ruwe, phot_g_mean_mag, phot_bp_mean_mag, phot_rp_mean_mag, bp_rp, phot_variable_flag, teff_gspphot, distance_gspphot, non_single_star, DISTANCE(POINT(60.1073758,32.5909576), POINT(ra,dec))*3600 AS sep_arcsec FROM gaiadr3.gaia_source WHERE 1=CONTAINS(POINT(ra,dec), CIRCLE(60.1073758,32.5909576,0.008333333333333333)) ORDER BY sep_arcsec"},"retrieved_at":"2026-10-29T15:45:04+00:00","rows_raw":4,"rows_kept":4,"cuts":[],"notes":[],"status":"ok"},"gaia_epoch":{"archive":"ESA Gaia epoch photometry (datalink; DR4 if published, else DR3)","query":{"source_id":170329679884731008},"retrieved_at":"2026-10-29T15:45:09+00:00","rows_raw":0,"rows_kept":0,"cuts":[],"notes":["no Gaia epoch photometry (DR3 published it only for sources Gaia flagged as variable)"],"status":"empty"},"neowise":{"archive":"IRSA Gator neowiser_p1bs_psd","query":{"catalog":"neowiser_p1bs_psd","spatial":"cone","radius":3.0,"radunits":"arcsec","objstr":"60.1073758 32.5909576","outfmt":1,"selcols":"mjd,w1mpro,w1sigmpro,w2mpro,w2sigmpro,qual_frame,qi_fact,saa_sep,moon_masked,cc_flags,ph_qual,w1sat,w2sat,nb,na,w1snr,w2snr,w1rchi2,w2rchi2"},"retrieved_at":"2026-10-29T15:45:19+00:00","rows_raw":263,"rows_kept":42,"cuts":["W1: qual_frame > 0 removed 4","W1: moon_masked == '00' removed 7","W1: nb == 1 (no blending) removed 1","W1: w1rchi2 < 5x source median removed 6","W2: qual_frame > 0 removed 4","W2: moon_masked == '00' removed 7","W2: nb == 1 (no blending) removed 1","W2: w2rchi2 < 5x source median removed 1"],"notes":["rows_kept counts 6-month visits (W1 and W2), not exposures"],"status":"ok"},"neowise_exp":{"archive":"IRSA Gator neowiser_p1bs_psd (single exposures)","query":{"catalog":"neowiser_p1bs_psd","spatial":"cone","radius":3.0,"radunits":"arcsec","objstr":"60.1073758 32.5909576","outfmt":1,"selcols":"mjd,w1mpro,w1sigmpro,w2mpro,w2sigmpro,qual_frame,qi_fact,saa_sep,moon_masked,cc_flags,ph_qual,w1sat,w2sat,nb,na,w1snr,w2snr,w1rchi2,w2rchi2"},"retrieved_at":"2026-10-29T15:45:24+00:00","rows_raw":263,"rows_kept":495,"cuts":["W1: qual_frame > 0 removed 4","W1: moon_masked == '00' removed 7","W1: nb == 1 (no blending) removed 1","W1: w1rchi2 < 5x source median removed 6","W2: qual_frame > 0 removed 4","W2: moon_masked == '00' removed 7","W2: nb == 1 (no blending) removed 1","W2: w2rchi2 < 5x source median removed 1"],"notes":[],"status":"ok"},"ztf":{"archive":"IRSA ZTF light curve service","query":{"POS":"CIRCLE 60.1073758 32.5909576 0.000556","BANDNAME":"g,r,i","FORMAT":"csv","BAD_CATFLAGS_MASK":"32768"},"retrieved_at":"2026-10-29T15:45:24+00:00","rows_raw":1338,"rows_kept":1337,"cuts":[],"notes":["3 ZTF object IDs merged (one per field/filter)"],"status":"ok"},"atlas":{"archive":"ATLAS forced photometry (fallingstar-data.com), reduced images","query":{"ra":60.1073758,"dec":32.5909576,"mjd_min":57000,"use_reduced":true,"task":"5270459"},"retrieved_at":"2026-10-29T15:47:40+00:00","rows_raw":3798,"rows_kept":3735,"cuts":[],"notes":["reused the hunt's server response hunts/H-0007/work/atlas_J040025.txt","chi_n cut disabled (chi_max=1e9): bright star, PSF-fit chi_n 5-100 at baseline; the default cut flags 78% of frames","frames brighter than m ~ 12.2 are near ATLAS saturation (the 2017 Sep 11-13 peak nights)"],"status":"ok"}},"skeptic":{"generated_at":"2026-10-29T15:47:41+00:00","oddsky_version":"0.3.1","summary":"0 fail, 2 warn, 8 pass, 0 skipped","counts":{"fail":0,"warn":2,"pass":8,"skip":0},"checks":[{"id":"blend_neowise","title":"Neighbours inside the NEOWISE beam (6.1\")","status":"pass","finding":"no Gaia source within 6.1\"","numbers":{"radius_arcsec":6.1}},{"id":"blend_ztf","title":"Neighbours inside the ZTF beam (2.0\")","status":"pass","finding":"no Gaia source within 2.0\"","numbers":{"radius_arcsec":2.0}},{"id":"blend_atlas","title":"Neighbours inside the ATLAS beam (8.0\")","status":"pass","finding":"1 Gaia source(s) within 8.0\"; brightest contributes 0.6% of the target's G flux at 6.3\"","numbers":{"radius_arcsec":8.0,"n_inside":1,"total_flux_ratio_G":0.0058,"brightest_flux_ratio":0.0058,"brightest_sep":6.3497}},{"id":"wise_saturation","title":"WISE saturation","status":"pass","finding":"all visits fainter than the W1/W2 saturation limits","numbers":{"saturated_visits":0}},{"id":"wise_cuts","title":"NEOWISE single-exposure quality cuts","status":"pass","finding":"263 exposures; cuts removed up to 18 (7%) per band; 0 visits kept with fewer than 3 exposures","numbers":{"exposures":263,"removed_per_band":{"W1":18,"W2":13},"thin_visits":0}},{"id":"confirmation","title":"Independent optical confirmation","status":"pass","finding":"optical data from 2 independent source(s): ATLAS (3735), ZTF 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candidate J040025.77+323527.4 (Gaia DR3 170329679884731008), the ATLAS fit and the parallax claim\n\nAuthor: claude-referee (second pass), 2026-10-29. Scope: the ATLAS light curve (`work/atlas_J040025.txt`), the joint fit\n`scripts/hunt_h0007_lensfit.py` \u2192 `work/lensfit_J040025.{json,csv}`, and the claims built on it (no-parallax \u03c7\u00b2 462/69, parallax \u03c7\u00b2 98/67,\ntE = 47.6 \u00b1 0.4 d, u0 = 0.141, \u03c0E = 1.05 \u00b1 0.13, A_max 7.1, the out-of-sample peak check, the lens mass).\nAll numbers below come from my own code in `reviews/claude-referee-2-2026-10-29/` (r1-r12). It runs outside the Oddsky tools\n(pandas, scipy, emcee, MulensModel 3.12), from the repo root, with `uv run python` (`--with emcee` / `--with MulensModel` where noted). The library\n`r2_lib.py` is written from scratch and does not import the investigators' script. It bins per night, band **and unit**, drops frames\nmore than 15% from their own night's median (this removes one frame, 58027.552, at f = 1.06 among f = 2.8 frames), and gets the Sun's position from astropy `get_sun` (GCRS)\nrather than the negative barycentric Earth.\n\n## 1. Verdict\n\nThe 2017 event is microlensing, and its light curve really is asymmetric. Every variant I tried rejects a symmetric Paczy\u0144ski curve\n(\u0394\u03c7\u00b2 85-490): both ATLAS units show the asymmetry on their own, and it is not an early-season, zero-point, saturation, NEOWISE or\ndifference-imaging artifact. **The parallax measurement is overstated.** The data measure a source-lens acceleration. Of that, only\n\u03c0_E,\u2225 \u2248 0.6 is robust. \u03c0_E,\u22a5 supplies most of |\u03c0E|, and it moves from \u22120.45 to \u22121.4 when you allow a 1% zero point for unit 02a,\nwhich the 2017-18 baseline itself shows. There is a second u0 solution with tE = 51.8 d. A constant-acceleration trajectory, xallarap\nand (before the peak nights are added) a static binary lens fit as well as annual parallax or better. Only physical priors favour\nparallax. \"\u03c0E = 1.05 \u00b1 0.13, 0.19 M\u2609 at 0.5 kpc\" must become \"an asymmetry consistent with annual parallax, |\u03c0E| \u2248 0.6-1.6; the lens mass is\nnot measured\".\n\n- **P(mundane, i.e. not microlensing) = 0.05.**\n- **P(the asymmetry is astrophysical rather than ATLAS systematics) = 0.95.**\n- **P(it is annual parallax, i.e. the parallax detection is real) = 0.80.**\n- **P(\u03c0E = 1.05 \u00b1 0.13 as quoted is an honest interval) \u2248 0.3.**\n\n## 2. Attacks and results (numbered as in the brief)\n\n**1. Independent re-derivation, geometry, degeneracies (r3, r4, r10).**\n- *Geometry.* My \u0394s agrees with the investigators' to < 3.3\u00d710\u207b\u2075 AU over the season. MulensModel 3.12, an independent implementation of\n  Gould (2004), reproduces their magnifications to 0.5%, with the same \u03c0E (N, E) signs and **u0 of opposite sign**. MulensModel's \u0394\u03b2 = \u03c0E \u00d7 \u0394s is defined with the\n  opposite handedness. That has no physical consequence, because both signs are fitted, but say \"u0 > 0 in our convention (u0 < 0 in MulensModel)\".\n  - Pitfall: MulensModel reads a bare `\"60.107 32.59\"` string as hours, which gives a 20% disagreement. Pass sexagesimal.\n  - The projection onto N/E and the Sun-from-Earth sign are correct. The \u03c0E vector (PA \u2248 201\u00b0) is the geocentric lens-source proper-motion direction.\n- *Replication.* My binning gives static \u03c7\u00b2 453.9 and parallax \u03c7\u00b2 89.3 (75 points), with \u03c0E = (\u22120.99, \u22120.37) and |\u03c0E| = 1.06, t0 58012.20, tE 47.75,\n  u0 0.142. That is their solution. Their csv recomputes to 462.0 and 98.2 exactly.\n- *Ecliptic degeneracy* (\u03b2 = +11.75\u00b0). A u0 < 0 solution exists at **\u0394\u03c7\u00b2 = +1.9** with \u03c0E = (\u22121.02, \u22120.46) and **tE = 51.8 \u00b1 1.6 d**. The quoted\n  tE = 47.6 \u00b1 0.4 ignores it. An emcee run seeded in both modes (r8) gives tE 68% [47.5, 52.8], 95% [47.0, 55.3].\n- *\u03c0E decomposition.* The Sun's projected acceleration at t0 points to PA 255\u00b0 (N, E = \u22120.26, \u22120.97), so \u03c0_E,\u2225 = **+0.62** and \u03c0_E,\u22a5 = **\u22120.86**.\n  The large component is the poorly constrained perpendicular one.\n- *Jerk-parallax degeneracy.* The full grid (r4_grid.csv, 3,162 fits) has a mirror minimum at \u03c0E = (+1.2, \u22121.1), i.e. \u03c0_\u2225 = 0.75, \u03c0_\u22a5 = **+1.45**,\n  |\u03c0E| = 1.6, at **\u0394\u03c7\u00b2 = +20.5 (u0 < 0) / +32 (u0 > 0)**.\n  - Divided by the error inflation the residuals need (\u00d71.66\u00b2 \u2248 2.8, item 4), that is \u0394\u03c7\u00b2 \u2248 7-12, so the mirror is disfavoured, not excluded.\n  - The |\u03c0E| profile has \u0394\u03c7\u00b2 < 9 for 0.78-1.43 and < 25 for 0.6-1.8.\n- *Generic acceleration.* A constant-acceleration trajectory (\u0394\u03c4 = \u00bda_\u03c4x\u00b2, \u0394\u03b2 = \u00bda_\u03b2x\u00b2; the same five parameters as parallax) fits **better: \u03c7\u00b2 78.7 against\n  89.3**. Adding a jerk term gives 73.6.\n  - The difference sits entirely in the Dec 2017-Mar 2018 tail, where parallax predicts A = 1.005-1.03 and the data sit at 0.97-1.03.\n  - It remains when the 02a zero point is free (69.6 against 79.4).\n  - Within the event itself (57940-58090) the two are identical (13.5 against 13.7).\n  - So the data constrain an acceleration. They do not independently confirm Earth's orbital time dependence.\n\n**2. ATLAS systematics (r1, r4, r5).** The asymmetry survives every attack; the value of \u03c0E does not.\n- *What the asymmetry is.* The core is symmetric about MJD \u2248 58010.6-58011.5 (A = 2.8 at 57993.6 and 58027.6). The far wings are not:\n  A = 1.51 (Jul 30, 01a) and 1.61 (Aug 5, 02a) at t0 \u2212 47/\u221241 d, against 1.30 (02a) at t0 + 45 d. That is a 15-20% difference, against a 1.2-1.3% nightly scatter.\n- *Season start, airmass.* In nine other seasons, the nights from day-of-year 205-220 have median 1.003, sd 0.011 (27 nights, airmass 1.5).\n  The 2017 nights had airmass 1.2-1.3. There is no early-season excess.\n- *Unit zero points.* The baselines agree to 0.3% overall (01a 11,053, 02a 11,018 \u00b5Jy). But **in the 2017-18 season 01a/02a = 1.013**, and a free 02a scale\n  fits 0.9895 \u00b1 0.0033 (\u0394\u03c7\u00b2 = \u221210, 1 parameter). With it, \u03c0E = (\u22120.60, \u22120.46), |\u03c0E| = **0.76**, \u03c0_\u22a5 = \u22120.46. \u03c0_\u2225 stays at 0.60.\n- *Saturation.* chi_n/A\u00b2 for the 01a peak night (58009.6, m 11.64, FWHM \u2248 3 px) is 5-10, the same as 01a at A = 2.6.\n  The 02a peak night (58007.6, m 11.85, FWHM \u2248 2 px) is at 145-375, against an 02a baseline median of 33.\n  With all points included, every model leaves 58007 about 4% low and 58009 about 4% high. That fits 02a nonlinearity near m \u2248 11.9, not 01a.\n- *Variants* (r4_variants.csv; \u0394\u03c7\u00b2(static \u2212 parallax), |\u03c0E|):\n\n  | variant | \u0394\u03c7\u00b2 | \\|\u03c0E\\| |\n  |---|---|---|\n  | baseline | 365 | 1.06 |\n  | cut 11.8 (adds 58007) | 475 | 1.06 |\n  | no cut (adds both peak nights) | 487 | 0.99 |\n  | cut 12.5 | 358 | 1.20 |\n  | cut 13.0 (wings only) | 85 | 1.57 |\n  | no NEOWISE | 360 | 1.06 |\n  | per-unit baselines | 374 | 1.07 |\n  | 02a scale free | 349 | 0.76 |\n  | fs free per band | 339 | 1.03 |\n  | 01a + NEOWISE only | 187 | 1.28 |\n  | 02a + NEOWISE only | 158 | 0.94 |\n  | chi_n < 100 frames only | 334 | 1.13 |\n  | 2% calibration floor | 132 | 1.09 |\n  | drop Jul 30 + Aug 5 | 186 | 1.19 |\n  | drop the post-event tail | 287 | 0.91 |\n  | drop 58055-58077 | 247 | 1.49 |\n\n- *Robustness.* A night-by-night jackknife (r4_jackknife.csv) moves |\u03c0E| only within 1.01-1.18, so no single night carries it.\n  \u03c0_\u2225 stays at 0.55-0.82 in every variant, while \u03c0_\u22a5 ranges from \u22120.45 to \u22121.37.\n- *NEOWISE* contributes nothing to \u03c0E (1.057 without it). It is an achromaticity check only.\n- *Difference imaging* is not an issue: the photometry is forced PSF photometry on reduced images (`use_reduced=True`). The nearest Gaia neighbour is G = 19.6 at 6.3\".\n\n**3. Xallarap and binary lens (r6, r7, r11).**\n- *Xallarap.* Circular-orbit xallarap fits as well as parallax or better for P \u2265 180 d: \u03c7\u00b2 77.5 (P = 180), 75.8 (365), 74.4 (500), against 89.3.\n  Shorter periods fail (P \u2264 120 d: \u03c7\u00b2 \u2265 114). The light curve cannot reject it; physics does.\n  - The source's orbital semi-major axis is \u03be_E\u00b7D_S\u00b7\u03b8_E. At \u03b8_E = 0.3 mas the P = 180 d solution needs a companion of \u2265 3.4 M\u2609, and P \u2265 250 d needs \u2265 9 M\u2609.\n  - A companion that massive but dark would be a black hole. A luminous one would dominate the SED, which is a single 4,800 K giant.\n  - The reflex wobble \u03b1 = \u03be_E\u00b7\u03b8_E \u2265 0.25 mas at P \u2248 0.5 yr is not easy to hide behind RUWE 0.99 at G = 14.\n  - Xallarap is disfavoured, not excluded.\n- *Static binary lens.* Without the peak nights, s = 0.55, q = 0.70 fits at \u03c7\u00b2 78.8, better than parallax. But it crosses caustics between the data and predicts **A = 85 on\n  58009.6**, against an observed 7.3. Fitted with the peak nights, the best binary lens is \u03c7\u00b2 124.1 (s 1.89, q 0.084, \u03b1 \u2248 0\u00b0) against 117.8 for parallax, with one more\n  parameter. Disfavoured, not excluded.\n- *The out-of-sample peak check* is not specific to parallax. Fitted without the peak nights, the models predict 58007.6 / 58009.6 as follows:\n\n  | model | 58007.6 | 58009.6 |\n  |---|---|---|\n  | observed | 5.95 | 7.28 |\n  | parallax | 5.95 | 6.64 |\n  | constant acceleration | 6.05 | 6.76 |\n  | acceleration + jerk | 6.43 | 7.28 |\n  | xallarap P = 365 d | 6.60 | 7.69 |\n  | static | 11.1 | 16.1 |\n\n  The check kills the symmetric model and nothing else. Parallax **under-predicts the 01a peak night by 9%** (\u2248 5\u03c3 at the quoted errors), and that night shows no sign of saturation.\n\n**4. Are the uncertainties honest? (r5, r8).** No.\n- *Residuals.* Off-event \u03c7\u00b2 is 45 for 28 nights (the MAD floor underestimates the tails). Event-season residuals have lag-1 autocorrelation 0.37-0.44 and 12 sign runs in 43 nights.\n- *emcee*, 48 walkers seeded in both u0 modes, 6,000 steps:\n\n  | run | \\|\u03c0E\\| 68% | 95% |\n  |---|---|---|\n  | errors scaled to \u03c7\u00b2/dof = 1 | 0.95-1.26 | 0.82-1.43 |\n  | + correlated-noise factor 1.47 | 0.90-1.35 | 0.73-1.58 |\n  | + free 02a zero point | 0.67-1.12 | 0.56-1.41 |\n\n  The fitted jitter is 0.6% (68% < 0.9%).\n- *A_max* 95% is 5.7-9.7 (quoted 6.2-8.4). *tE* 95% is 47-56 d (quoted 46.9-48.4).\n- The investigators' MCMC started from a 10\u207b\u00b3 ball around one mode, with unscaled errors. The \u00b10.4 d on tE and \u00b10.13 on \u03c0E are 4-10\u00d7 too small once\n  the second mode and the systematics are included.\n- *Blending.* Parallax with fs free gives fs_o = 0.77 \u00b1 0.24, fs_c 0.62 \u00b1 0.24, fs_W 0.77 \u00b1 0.24, and |\u03c0E| 1.22 (r12). \"fs = 1.00, no blend\" is an assumption, not a result.\n\n**5. Physical plausibility and lens detectability (r9, r12).** A simple Galactic Monte Carlo (thin and thick discs, flat rotation curve, Chabrier IMF to 0.01 M\u2609\nplus 10% white dwarfs, Gaia source proper motion, rate-weighted) for events with tE 44-56 d toward (162.8\u00b0, \u221215.3\u00b0) at D_S = 3 kpc:\n- *\u03c0E prior.* Median \u03c0E 0.54 (5-95%: 0.18-1.38). P(\u03c0E > 0.82) = 0.22, P(> 1.0) = 0.13. **\u03c0E \u2248 1 is plausible, not exotic.**\n  The measured direction is unremarkable: 18% of events lie within 30\u00b0 of PA 201\u00b0.\n- *Likely lens.* Among events with \u03c0E > 0.75: 90% have D_L < 1 kpc, 58% have M < 0.3 M\u2609, 14% are brown dwarfs and 19% white dwarfs.\n  The likely lens is an M dwarf at 0.3-0.7 kpc. A brown dwarf at \u2265 1 kpc or a white dwarf is not excluded.\n- *Mass range.* Along the mass-distance relation, across the range |\u03c0E| = 0.76-1.05: M = 0.19-0.36 M\u2609 at 0.5 kpc and 0.075-0.14 M\u2609 at 1 kpc.\n  Over the 95% posterior with errors inflated (run E): **0.10-0.65 M\u2609 at 0.5 kpc and 0.04-0.26 M\u2609 at 1 kpc**.\n- *Detectability now.* For \u03c0E = 1.05:\n  - D_L = 0.4 kpc: G \u2248 19.4, Ks \u2248 15.2 (\u0394Ks 4.0), separation **0.14\"** in 2026.8.\n  - D_L = 0.5 kpc: G 20.7, Ks 16.3 (\u0394Ks 5.1), 0.11\".\n  - D_L \u2265 1 kpc: a brown dwarf at Ks > 20 within 0.05\".\n  - Gaia (needs \u2273 0.4\" at \u0394m \u2273 4), 2MASS and WISE cannot see it.\n  - The NEOWISE and ATLAS magnifications on the same night agree (W1 2.731 against the o-band model 2.725). So the lens supplies \u2272 3% of the W1 light, i.e. D_L \u2273 0.35 kpc for \u03c0E \u2248 1.\n  - Keck or VLT AO in K could detect an M-dwarf lens at D_L \u2272 0.5 kpc from about 2030 (0.15-0.2\", \u0394K 4-5). A brown-dwarf lens is undetectable.\n\n**6. Does anything kill microlensing? (r1, r5, r11).** No.\n- It is a single event in eleven years: no other night is > 15% above baseline in c, and the one o outlier (2022 Jan 1) is a single 03a frame.\n- With parallax the event-window \u03c7\u00b2 is 44 for 47 points. The light curve is smooth.\n- NEOWISE is achromatic: W1 = W2 to 0.5%, matching the contemporaneous o-band value.\n- The rise is **slower** than the decline. Novae, dwarf novae, flares and symbiotic outbursts do the opposite.\n- Limits on the test:\n  - The rise began during the 4-month seasonal gap (last pre-event point 2017 Mar 28, A = 1.01-1.04 in c).\n  - ATLAS has only **two c nights** in the event (12 frames, A \u2264 1.10), so ATLAS gives no colour test. The 2.5\u03c3 \"fs_c \u2260 fs_o\" in J040025.md is not significant with parallax (0.62 \u00b1 0.24 against 0.77 \u00b1 0.24).\n\n**7. Novelty (2026-10-29).** Apparently unreported. ASAS-SN and ADS remain unchecked.\n- VSX (vizier.idia.ac.za, 120\"): only Gaia DR3 170329508086043392 (ROT) at 59.6\".\n- TNS: nothing within 60\". Within 15', only SN 2023ucx and AT 2023npo, both 2023 ZTF objects. There is no ATLAS17 designation.\n- SIMBAD (CfA mirror; the CDS host timed out): no object within 30\".\n- Web searches for the Gaia id, \"J040025.77+323527.4\" and \"J04002576+3235273\": no hits.\n- The nearest literature events are unrelated: ASASSN-V J044558.57+081444.6 (ATel 10677, a 2014 event, tE 45 d) and Kojima-1 / TCP J05074264+2447555 (Nov 2017).\n- ASAS-SN Sky Patrol is still down (maintenance banner dated 2026-10-13; the client fails).\n\n## 3. Most plausible mundane explanation remaining\n\nFor the event itself: none. For the parallax number: a ~1% unit- and season-dependent ATLAS zero point plus PSF nonlinearity near m \u2248 12 in 02a.\nThese are not mundane enough to fake the 15-20% wing asymmetry. They are enough to move \u03c0_\u22a5, and so |\u03c0E| and the lens mass, by a factor of 2.\nXallarap from a massive dark companion is the astrophysical alternative to parallax, and it is disfavoured on physical grounds only.\n\n## 4. Required wording changes (J040025.md and any text built on `lensfit_J040025`)\n\n1. **\"The light curve is single, smooth and symmetric with Paczy\u0144ski shape (tE = 45 d)\"** must become: \"single and smooth, but **asymmetric**: a symmetric\n   point-lens curve is rejected (\u0394\u03c7\u00b2 \u2248 365); annual parallax fits (\u03c7\u00b2/dof 89/70 after binning, 1.3).\"\n   Remove the ATLAS-only PSPL numbers (tE 44.6 \u00b1 1.9, \"u0 unconstrained, A_max \u2248 12\", \"model predicts A = 2.62 at the NEOWISE visit\").\n   The parallax model gives A = 2.73 at the NEOWISE visit.\n2. **\"\u03c0E = 1.05 \u00b1 0.13 (\u03c0E,N \u22120.98, \u03c0E,E \u22120.37)\"** must become:\n   \"\u03c0_E,\u2225 = 0.62 (0.55-0.82 across all systematics variants); \u03c0_E,\u22a5 = \u22120.86, systematics-limited (\u22120.45 to \u22121.4); **|\u03c0E| \u2248 0.6-1.6**\n   (95%, errors inflated for correlated residuals and a free 02a zero point). A jerk-parallax mirror solution at |\u03c0E| \u2248 1.6 is disfavoured by \u0394\u03c7\u00b2 \u2248 7-12 after error\n   inflation.\"\n3. **\"tE = 47.6 \u00b1 0.4 d, u0 = 0.141\"** must become \"tE = 47.7 d (u0 = +0.14) or 51.8 d (u0 = \u22120.14, \u0394\u03c7\u00b2 = 1.9); 95% 47-56 d\". Also note that the u0 sign convention is\n   opposite to MulensModel's.\n4. **\"A_max 7.1 (6.2-8.4)\"** must become \"A_max \u2248 7 (5.7-9.7, 95%)\".\n5. **\"No-parallax \u03c7\u00b2 462/69; parallax 98/67\"**: keep, but add \"a constant-acceleration trajectory (same number of parameters) fits better (\u03c7\u00b2 78.7 on the same\n   data), as does xallarap with P \u2265 180 d (74-78); the data measure an acceleration, and the parallax interpretation rests on its physical\n   plausibility (xallarap would need a \u2265 3 M\u2609 dark companion).\"\n6. **The out-of-sample check** must read: \"it rejects the symmetric model (predicted \u00d711 and \u00d716); parallax, acceleration and xallarap all predict the\n   peak nights to within 10%. Parallax predicts 58007.6 (02a) exactly and under-predicts 58009.6 (01a) by 9%.\" It is not evidence for parallax over the alternatives.\n7. **\"Implied lens ~0.19 M\u2609 at 0.5 kpc, ~0.075 M\u2609 at 1 kpc\"** must become \"**the lens mass is not measured** (\u03b8E unknown). Along the mass-distance relation,\n   0.1-0.65 M\u2609 at 0.5 kpc and 0.04-0.26 M\u2609 at 1 kpc; most likely an M dwarf within 1 kpc.\"\n   Do not write \"brown dwarf\" or \"0.19 M\u2609\" in a title, hook or brief.\n8. **\"The source fraction comes out at 1.00 when bounded (no blend)\"** must become \"fs = 1 is assumed. With parallax, fs_o = 0.77 \u00b1 0.24.\"\n9. **Achromaticity**: \"ATLAS c has only 12 points in the event\" must become \"two c nights (12 frames) at A \u2264 1.10; no ATLAS colour test. The\n   per-band fs difference is 0.4\u03c3 with parallax.\"\n10. **Gaia DR4 predictions** (Prediction 1) must be updated to \u0394G = \u22120.40 (2017 Jul 27), \u22120.88 (Aug 22), \u22122.07 (Sep 18 16:35 UT) for every asymmetric\n    model. The static model gives \u22120.28 / \u22120.81 / \u22122.49. Equal BP and RP changes are still required.\n11. **Novelty**: add \"SIMBAD (CfA mirror): nothing within 30\"; TNS 15': only two unrelated 2023 objects; no ATLAS17 designation\". ADS is still unchecked.\n12. **Ladder status**: *reproduced* (two instruments) is correct for the event. The parallax should be labelled *candidate measurement*, not *measured*.\n    Nothing about the lens mass is publishable.\n\n## 5. Decisive follow-ups\n\n1. **Gaia DR4 (Dec 2026): epoch photometry and epoch astrometry** for 170329679884731008.\n   - Photometry: the Sep 18 transit (predicted \u0394G \u22122.07, A \u2248 6.7) fixes the peak height independently of ATLAS saturation.\n   - Astrometry: the astrometric-microlensing centroid shifts at the four transits are 0.32, 0.22, 0.22 and 0.07 \u03b8E, i.e. **0.3-0.5 mas for \u03b8E = 1-1.6 mas**.\n     At G = 13-14 that is likely detectable. **\u03b8E gives the mass**, and the shift direction gives the \u03bc_rel direction. Comparing that with PA(\u03c0E) \u2248 200\u00b0 separates parallax from xallarap.\n   - The full DR4 astrometric time series also bounds any source orbit (xallarap).\n2. **ASAS-SN Sky Patrol (id 17180188199)** once the service returns: V/g at a 1-3 d cadence through 2017 Aug-Oct, unsaturated at V \u2248 12. That is a third\n   instrument for the wing asymmetry, free of the ATLAS unit zero points. A joint fit with per-instrument scales should settle \u03c0_\u22a5.\n3. Lens imaging with Keck or VLT AO in K around 2030 (expected separation 0.15-0.2\" if D_L \u2272 0.5 kpc).\n\n## 6. Tool fixes\n\n- `scripts/hunt_h0007_lensfit.py`:\n  - Seed the MCMC in both u0 modes and in the jerk-parallax mirror, and rescale the errors to \u03c7\u00b2/dof = 1 (or fit a jitter term).\n  - Report \u03c0_\u2225 and \u03c0_\u22a5, not only (\u03c0E,N, \u03c0E,E).\n  - Fit per-unit (and per-season) zero points as nuisance parameters.\n  - Fit parallax with fs free.\n  - Fit the generic-acceleration and xallarap models as standard controls.\n  - Its \"out-of-sample\" check should be run against those controls, not only the static model.\n- Nightly binning with `floor(mjd \u2212 0.3)` splits Hawaii nights at 07:12 UT (e.g. 57789.285 / 57789.316 land in different \"nights\"). Use `floor(mjd \u2212 0.9)` for\n  01a/02a, or bin by site-local date.\n- `oddsky.data.atlas`: return the unit (obs[:3]) as a column, and flag frames brighter than m \u2248 12.2 with FWHM < 2.3 px (02a), where\n  chi_n/A\u00b2 rises.\n- Add a MulensModel cross-check to the lens-fit tooling, and pass coordinates as SkyCoord: a bare decimal string is read as hours.\n\nScripts: `reviews/claude-referee-2-2026-10-29/`\n- r1_explore.py: season, unit and saturation diagnostics.\n- r2_lib.py: the library.\n- r3_geometry.py: geometry and MulensModel check; needs `--with MulensModel`.\n- r4_fits.py: variants, `--jack`, `--grid`; writes r4_variants.csv, r4_jackknife.csv and r4_grid.csv.\n- r5_extra.py: unit scale, windows and residual correlation.\n- r6_xallarap.py: writes r6_xallarap.csv.\n- r7_binlens.py: binary lens, `[--all]`; needs `--with MulensModel`.\n- r8_mcmc.py: needs `--with emcee`; writes r8_mcmc.json.\n- r9_galaxy.py: Galactic Monte Carlo.\n- r10_grid_binpred.py: grid minima and binary-lens peak prediction.\n- r11_allpoints.py: peak-night predictions per model.\n- r12_blend_gaia_lens.py: blending, Gaia predictions and lens brightness.\n"},{"file":"claude-referee-2026-10-29.md","markdown":"# Referee report: H-0007 candidate J040025.77+323527.4 (Gaia DR3 170329679884731008)\n\nAuthor: claude-referee, 2026-10-29. Scope: the README section \"The candidate\" and `figures/J040025.png`.\nEvery number below was re-derived; scripts are in `reviews/claude-referee-2026-10-29/` (a1-a6.py; they run outside\nthe Oddsky tools, using pandas on the IRSA parquet plus my own Gator, Gaia TAP and GOST queries; a1 writes `/tmp/h7ref/ex.parquet`, which a2 and a5 read).\n\n## 1. Verdict\n\nThe brightening is real NEOWISE photometry of this star. It survives every instrumental, association and\nphysics attack I could make, and no mundane explanation fits it: no artifact, blend, flare or companion outburst\nreproduces a \u00d72.73, colour-neutral, centroid-locked brightening lasting \u2265 1 day. **Probability that a mundane\nexplanation is correct: 0.15.** Two things make up that 0.15. First, the prior is low: about 7% that this hunt would\nfind any A \u2265 2.7 event on an anticentre star (attack 4). Second, the event is unconfirmed outside NEOWISE. Two README\nstatements are wrong and must change: \"tE \u2273 20 d\" and \"ZTF r rms 0.05\" (section 4).\n\n## 2. Attacks and results\n\n**1. Instrumental (exposure level; a1, a2, a3, a4).**\n- Event visit (visit 16, MJD 57992.559-57993.541): 13 exposures in 11 scans (85442a-85472a), frames 50-122. All have\n  nb = 1, na = 0, cc_flags 0000, ph_qual AA, moon_masked 00 and sso_flg 0. qual_frame is 10 in 9 exposures and 5 in 4; the\n  baseline visits have qual_frame = 5 in a similar fraction (0-64%).\n- W1 = 10.034 (exposure scatter 0.015) against a 20-visit baseline of 11.126 (visit-to-visit scatter 0.008), so \u0394W1 = \u22121.092 and the flux ratio is **2.733**.\n  W2 = 10.132 against 11.219, so \u0394W2 = \u22121.087 and the flux ratio is **2.721**. This confirms the README (2.731 / 2.716).\n- Reduced \u03c7\u00b2 in the event visit has median 2.55 (W1), inside the 1.2-4.3 range of the baseline visit medians. The highest\n  values are in the last exposure (8.9 W1, 6.0 W2), which is also the brightest W1 point.\n- No second detection within 20\" in any event exposure. There are 199 unassociated detections in the 90\" cone during the visit,\n  against 127-254 in other visits. All of them have W1 > 14.6 and none is within 20\".\n- **The 90\" controls are weak:** 15 of the 18 controls have W1 > 14, and only three are brighter (\u0394W1 \u22120.002, +0.016,\n  \u22120.026). I replaced them with a 20' cone restricted to the event visit and the adjacent visits (Feb 2017, Feb 2018), using 34\n  event frames. 211 stars with W1 < 12.5 were measured in all three visits. Median \u0394W1 is +0.002 (MAD 0.005) for 26 stars at W1 6-10,\n  and +0.002 (MAD 0.007) for 30 stars at W1 10-11, the target's own range. **The target is the only one of 211 stars with |\u0394W1| > 0.3.**\n  So there is no frame-level or magnitude-dependent calibration error.\n- Latent or ghost: the brightest source within 20' is W1 = 5.8. A latent cannot land on the same sky position in 11 different\n  scans and keep a stellar W1-W2. Excluded.\n- Moving object: excluded. A solar-system body moves \u2265 1'/day at 90\u00b0 elongation (even a 40 AU object moves about 70\"/day\n  from parallax), but the centroid stayed fixed to 0.03\" over 0.98 d. Thermal emission would also make W2 \u226b W1. No sso_flg was set.\n  The Moon was 4-5 days old (new Moon 2017 Aug 21) and far from 4h RA.\n- The artifact mode that does exist at this position looks different. In visit 14 (2016 Sep), one exposure has nb = 2,\n  W1 = 10.22, W2 = 11.27 and r\u03c7\u00b2 = 238: a deblend failure, one frame only, and strongly chromatic. Nothing like it occurs in visit 16.\n- Across the hunt's whole brightening list (36 stellar events), J040025 is the only uncatalogued brightening of \u2265 0.5 mag on a\n  normal cool star. That gives no sign of a population of similar artifacts, but it also caps any unknown artifact rate at about one per 3.5\u00d710\u2078 star-visits.\n\n**2. Association (a1).** Gaia DR3 proper motion is (\u22121.22, \u22121.58) mas/yr, a negligible correction. After propagating it,\nthe event-visit mean centroid is (+0.013, \u22120.012)\" \u00b1 (0.022, 0.011)\", against a baseline-visit mean of (+0.006, \u22120.021)\" \u00b1\n(0.019, 0.017)\". The shift is < 0.06\" (2\u03c3). The extra light is 63% of the event flux, so its source must lie within **\u2248 0.1\"\nof the giant**. The only Gaia neighbour within 15\" is G = 19.6 at 6.35\"; it would need a ~9 mag outburst and would have\nmoved the centroid by 4\". Excluded.\n\n**3. Physics (a1; Gaia TAP).**\n- Colour. The star's own W1\u2212W2 is \u22120.093 (the visit-to-visit scatter is 0.014, with a slow drift from \u22120.08 in 2014 to \u22120.10 in 2024).\n  Colour change in the event visit: \u22120.001 against the all-visit median, \u22120.020 against the adjacent visits.\n  Extra light with W1\u2212W2 = 0, which covers any Rayleigh-Jeans source (hot flare, accretion disk, early supernova), would give \u0394(W1\u2212W2) = **+0.060**.\n  Free-free emission (a nova or symbiotic outburst, W1\u2212W2 \u2273 +0.5) would give far more. The Rayleigh-Jeans case is excluded at \u2265 4\u03c3. Only light with the giant's own colour fits, and lensing supplies exactly that.\n- Luminosity. Parallax is 0.3295 \u00b1 0.021 mas (about 2.9-3.0 kpc after the zero-point correction; GSP-Phot gives 3.39 kpc), A_V \u2248 1.08. The extra light\n  is W1 = 10.53, i.e. M_W1 \u2248 \u22121.8. A dwarf nova at peak has M_W1 \u2248 +2 to +4, so it falls short by 4-6 mag. A flare would need about 0.6 of the giant's\n  surface at 10\u2074 K for \u2265 1 day, roughly 400 L\u2609 and ~10\u2074\u00b9 erg. A classical nova would be about V \u2248 6 and red in W1\u2212W2. Excluded.\n- Binarity and accretion. RUWE 0.99. ipd_frac_multi_peak 0, ipd_gof_harmonic_amplitude 0.03, astrometric_excess_noise 0, non_single_star 0,\n  classprob_dsc binary 3\u00d710\u207b\u2076. RV \u221222.0 \u00b1 1.64 km/s over 23 transits. rv_chisq_pvalue and rv_renormalised_gof are null\n  (G_RVS > 12), **so Gaia offers no RV-variability test here.** ESP-ELS H\u03b1 pEW is +0.015 nm (no emission). FLAME gives R = 8.0 R\u2609,\n  L = 32.6 L\u2609, M = 2.7 M\u2609. **One flag:** the MSC two-star fit returns distance_msc = 382 pc with two K dwarfs, which is\n  inconsistent with the parallax at 15\u03c3; this is the expected MSC failure for a single giant, not evidence of a pair. There is nothing to suggest a symbiotic or a CV.\n- Optical quiescence. ZTF catflags = 0 gives r rms **0.011** (869 points), g 0.017 and i 0.011. The README's 0.05 is the rms\n  with flagged points included. That is good news for the claim: there is no quiescent flickering.\n\n**4. Microlensing plausibility (a5, a6).**\n- Point-lens fit to the 26 event-visit points plus the flat visits of Feb 2017 and Feb 2018 (\u03c7\u00b2_min = 14.8 for 28 points).\n  tE 95% range is **6-53 d** (median 22 d, log-flat prior). t0 is between \u22121 and +12 d after the visit, u0 is 0.28-0.39, and A_peak is \u2264 3.6.\n  The README's \"tE \u2273 20 d\" is wrong. Near peak the slope constrains how far t0 is from the visit, not a lower limit on tE; tE = 6-10 d is allowed.\n  W1 slope is \u22120.037 \u00b1 0.011 mag/d (confirmed), but W2 is +0.002 \u00b1 0.020 and the combined slope is \u22120.028 \u00b1 0.010. The rise is a 2.8\u03c3 result.\n- Rate. A double-exponential disk (thin + thick, \u03c1\u2080 = 0.043 M\u2609 pc\u207b\u00b3) gives \u03c4 = **1.1\u00d710\u207b\u2078** for Ds = 3.0 kpc at (162.8\u00b0, \u221215.3\u00b0).\n  With tE = 20-40 d, \u0393 = 0.6-1.2\u00d710\u207b\u2077 per star per year. The chance that one snapshot shows A \u2265 2.73 is \u03c4u\u00b2 = 1.6\u00d710\u207b\u2079, or 3.4\u00d710\u207b\u2078 for this star over 21 visits.\n  - For the hunt: 17.5 M quiet stars \u00d7 21 visits \u00d7 0.147 \u00d7 \u03c4\u0304. With \u03c4\u0304 = 0.5-1\u00d710\u207b\u2078, that is **0.3-0.5 expected A \u2265 2.7 events over the\n    whole |b| \u2265 10\u00b0 sample.** Restricted to anticentre-hemisphere stars at 1-5 kpc (about 3 M stars, \u03c4\u0304 \u2248 8\u00d710\u207b\u2079), it is about **0.07**.\n  - So one event here is a 1-in-15 outcome: unlikely but not alarming.\n- Comparison. Gaia DR3 4084984459435880064 (l = 14.9\u00b0, b = \u221210.6\u00b0, ~6 kpc) has \u03c4 \u2248 1.25\u00d710\u207b\u2077, 12\u00d7 higher, and was the expected kind of\n  recovery. Gaia20fnr (A = 1.38) is below this threshold. It is also not a new NEOWISE result: the Gaia20fnr paper (arXiv:2601.15969) already uses\n  NEOWISE.\n- Anticentre events this bright do happen (Kojima-1 / TCP J05074264+2447555, Oct 2017, \u03c4 \u2248 2\u00d710\u207b\u2079 by the same model).\n\n**5. Novelty.**\n- VSX (vizier.idia.ac.za, 120\"): only Gaia DR3 170329508086043392, a ROT star at 59.6\". TNS (60\"): no objects.\n- Gaia alerts (`../H-0005/alerts.csv`, 27,076 rows): the nearest alert is 45' away (Gaia23ahr, a YSO). There are 109 alerts within 10\u00b0, many of them YSOs in the Perseus/California clouds.\n- Web search for the Gaia id and designation: no hits.\n- ASAS-SN catalogue: asas_sn_id 17180188199 ([stellar_main, tic]). Its light-curve service is down for maintenance (notice dated 2026-10-13).\n- Absent from all of these, but ASAS-SN and ATLAS, the two surveys that would have seen a 2017 event, are unread.\n\n**6. Untapped data.**\n- **Gaia scanned the star 5.3 days before the NEOWISE visit.** GOST transits: 2017-07-27 (FoVP+FoVF), **2017-08-22 04:47 and 06:34 UTC**\n  (MJD 57987.20 / 57987.27), and 2017-09-18 16:35 (`reviews/claude-referee-2026-10-29/gost_2017jun-oct.csv`).\n  - Point-lens predictions: Aug 22 **\u0394G = \u22120.83** (68%: \u22120.95 to \u22120.52; P(\u0394G \u2264 \u22120.5) = 0.87), Sep 18 \u0394G = \u22120.33, Jul 27 \u0394G = \u22120.13.\n  - P(any transit \u2264 \u22121 mag) is only 0.12-0.18, so the lack of a Gaia alert (2017 threshold ~1 mag) is weak evidence against lensing (likelihood ratio ~0.85), not a refutation.\n  - These transits fall after the DR3 cut-off (2017 May 28) and inside DR4 (to 2020 Jan).\n- ATLAS task 5270459 was still at queue position 244 when I finished, so there is no ATLAS file to analyse.\n- ZTF did not exist yet (it starts in 2018-03), and TESS, OGLE, KMTNet and K2 did not cover this position.\n\n## 3. Most plausible mundane explanation remaining\n\nNone of the mundane explanations tested fits the data. What remains is an unknown NEOWISE single-exposure processing fault. It would have to hit one source\nin 13 frames from 11 scans, scale W1 and W2 by the same factor, keep the centroid and leave 210 neighbours alone. No such\nfault is known, and the hunt's own 3.5\u00d710\u2078 star-visits show no other example. I hold most of the 0.15 for this, plus a small share for a\nsame-colour, co-located transient I cannot think of.\n\n## 4. Required wording changes\n\n- Title: \"a microlensing event toward the Galactic anticentre\" should be \"**a candidate** microlensing event \u2026\".\n- \"tE \u2273 20 d from the in-visit slope\" should be: \"a point-lens fit gives tE 6-53 d (95%) and peak within \u22121 to +12 d of the\n  visit; the in-visit rise is 2.8\u03c3 (W1 \u22120.037 \u00b1 0.011, W2 +0.002 \u00b1 0.020 mag/d).\"\n- \"ZTF (2018-2025, r rms 0.05)\" should be \"r rms 0.011 (catflags = 0)\".\n- \"18 control stars in the same frames were unchanged\" should become: \"211 stars with W1 < 12.5 within 20', in the same frames, changed by\n  +0.002 \u00b1 0.007 mag (W1 10-11); the target is the only one beyond 0.3 mag.\"\n- \"Not in VSX, TNS or the Gaia alerts\" should add: \"ASAS-SN and ATLAS 2017 data not yet examined; Gaia observed it on 2017 Aug 22\n  (no alert; predicted \u0394G \u2248 \u22120.8, below the alert threshold).\"\n- Add the expected-rate statement: about 0.07 such events were expected among anticentre stars in this hunt.\n- The link `J040025.md` points to a file that does not exist. Write it or remove the link.\n- Ladder status: **candidate**, which is correct. Not \"discovery\" until optical confirmation.\n\n## 5. Decisive follow-ups\n\n1. **Gaia DR4 epoch photometry (due Dec 2026)** for source 170329679884731008 on 2017-08-22 (MJD 57987.2). Point-lens models predict\n   \u0394G \u2248 \u22120.8 (A \u2248 2.1), identical in BP and RP; flat would kill it. The Sep 18 point (predicted \u22120.33) then fixes tE.\n2. Before DR4: ATLAS task 5270459 (2017 Aug-Sep, c/o, cadence ~2 d) and ASAS-SN Sky Patrol id 17180188199 once the service returns.\n   A\u00d72.7 at G = 14 means about 13 mag in V/g, far above the ASAS-SN limit. The light-curve shape over tE settles it.\n\n## 6. Tool fixes\n\n- `scripts/hunt_h0007_exposures.py`: controls drawn from a 90\" cone are mostly 3-5 mag fainter than the target. Use a \u2265 15' cone restricted\n  to the event visit and the adjacent visits (Gator `constraints=\"mjd between \u2026\"`), and report magnitude-matched controls (as in a3/a4.py).\n- Replace slope-based tE claims with a point-lens grid fit that includes the flat neighbouring visits (a5.py).\n- Add a GOST transit lookup (`gaia.esac.esa.int/gost`: POST GostServlet with a session cookie, then export.jsp csv) to `oddsky.data.gaia`. Then\n  \"Gaia didn't alert\" can be checked against whether Gaia actually looked.\n- `oddsky.data.asassn` needs `pyasassn`, which is not installed (`uv run --with skypatrol` works). The service also announces maintenance\n  in its banner; put that text in provenance.\n- Hunt READMEs should quote ZTF scatter after the catflags = 0 cut.\n"}]}