{"case":{"id":"OS-0001","title":"The star that glowed before it dimmed","hook":"In 2018 this Sun-like star started glowing in the infrared. Three years later it began to fade. Something hot came first.","status":"reproduced","target":{"name":"ASASSN-21qj","ra":123.84708180613582,"dec":-38.98980679315472,"aliases":["2MASS J08152329-3859234","Gaia DR3 5539970601632026752","ASASSN -21qj"],"gaia_source_id":5539970601632026752,"otype":"*"},"summary":"A Sun-like star whose infrared suddenly brightened in 2017-18 with ~1,000 K dust, followed about 3 years later by ragged optical dips of up to 2 mag. The dips are more strongly coloured than interstellar dust, so small grains are blocking the light. The infrared excess faded as the optical recovered, and by 2025-26 the star is back to its pre-event brightness and flat to 0.005 mag; the best explanation is a one-off cloud of debris, plausibly from a planetary collision.","claims":[{"id":"C1","text":"Before late 2017 the infrared was boringly photospheric: 8 NEOWISE visits from 2014-05 to 2017-11 have W1 = 11.654 (median, scatter ~0.01 mag) and W1-W2 between -0.05 and -0.09, i.e. no detectable warm dust.","tag":"observed","calls":["K3","K4","K14"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:22+00:00"},{"id":"C2","text":"The infrared brightened abruptly between consecutive NEOWISE visits on 2017-11-15 (MJD 58072) and 2018-04-19 (MJD 58227): W1 by 0.34 mag and W2 by 0.78 mag, and W1-W2 jumped from -0.09 to +0.35. Over 2018-04 to 2020-04 the median excess vs. 2014-17 was -0.41 mag in W1 (20 sigma) and -0.80 mag in W2 (39 sigma).","tag":"computed","calls":["K3","K4","K5","K6","K14","K15"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:23+00:00"},{"id":"C3","text":"The excess alone (total minus the 2014-17 photosphere) is +45% of the stellar flux in W1 and +110% in W2, giving an excess W1-W2 of about 0.9 mag (Vega); a single blackbody with that 3.4/4.6 micron ratio has T ~ 1000 K (range ~850-1050 K across visits). Hot dust, far hotter than a cold debris belt. (Hand arithmetic on tool outputs; no tool computes excess temperature.)","tag":"inferred","calls":["K14","K15","K4"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:24+00:00"},{"id":"C4","text":"The infrared excess faded over 2020-2023: W1-W2 = +0.32 (2020-04), +0.22 (2020-11), +0.17 (2021-11), +0.16 (2022-04), -0.01 (2022-11), -0.09 (2023-11); W1 tracks the colour (r = -0.98). The last three visits (2023-04 to 2024-04) match the 2014-17 level to within 0.01 mag in W1 and W2. NEOWISE ends in 2024, so there is no infrared after 2024-04.","tag":"computed","calls":["K4","K16","K17"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:25+00:00"},{"id":"C5","text":"When AAVSO coverage begins (2021-08-26) the star is already deep in an event: the first 60 days have median V = 14.67 vs. V = 13.52 implied by the Gaia DR3 2014-17 mean (+1.15 mag). Within the event, dips reach up to 1.8 mag below a 300-day running baseline on timescales of days to weeks (faintest V 15.05, faintest B 16.51), with 18 excursions, all between 2021-08 and 2022-06.","tag":"computed","calls":["K60","K18","K8","K59"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:25+00:00"},{"id":"C6","text":"TESS sectors 8 (2019-02) and 34-35 (2021-01 to 2021-03) contain no excursion deeper than 0.05 mag and only ~1-2% day-to-day wiggles, so the deep, fast dips were not happening then, even though the infrared excess had been present since 2018-04. The infrared therefore led the dipping by at least ~2.9 years. Caveat: TESS is normalised per sector, so a smooth constant dimming during a sector would be invisible.","tag":"inferred","calls":["K29","K31","K32","K3"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:26+00:00"},{"id":"C7","text":"The dimming is strongly chromatic and steeper than interstellar reddening: from 2000+ near-simultaneous pairs, dB/dV = 1.55 (ISM 1.32), dI/dV = 0.45 (ISM 0.59), dB/dI = 2.86 (ISM 2.24), with r = 0.90-0.98.","tag":"computed","calls":["K36","K37","K38"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:27+00:00"},{"id":"C8","text":"A colour slope steeper than ISM dust means the occulter is not grey: it is dominated by small (sub-micron) grains, not large grains or an opaque solid body. Caveat: these are a single observer's magnitudes and the cross_band slopes could absorb uncorrected colour terms at the ~10% level.","tag":"inferred","calls":["K36","K37","K38"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:27+00:00"},{"id":"C9","text":"Recovery: the V seasonal median went from 13.587 (2022-09 to 2023-07) to 13.506 (2024-06 to 2025-07) to 13.489 (2025-08 to 2026-06), reaching ~13.47-13.48 by mid-2023. The optical recovery (2022-23) coincides with the disappearance of the infrared excess (2022-11 to 2023-11).","tag":"computed","calls":["K7","K44","K19","K20","K4"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:28+00:00"},{"id":"C10","text":"Since early 2025 the star has been flat: same-season medians Feb-Jun 2025 vs Feb-Jun 2026 differ by -0.0045 mag in V (1.5 sigma), 0.000 in B and -0.0035 in I. No excursion beyond the 4 sigma (0.14 mag) threshold after 2022-06. The current season (Oct 2026, V = 13.489, n = 16) matches the first half of 2026 (13.486). V is now equal to the Gaia-implied 13.52 within the ~0.03-0.05 mag uncertainty of a G-to-V transformation.","tag":"computed","calls":["K55","K56","K57","K58","K8"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:29+00:00"},{"id":"C11","text":"A step occurs at MJD ~60721.7 (2025-02-16), across a 10-day gap: I brightens by 0.120 mag (15.7 sigma), R by 0.047, B by 0.021 and V by 0.013. The brightening grows toward the red, the opposite of dust clearing.","tag":"computed","calls":["K46","K47","K48","K49","K50"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:30+00:00"},{"id":"C12","text":"The 2025-02 step is almost certainly a calibration change by the single observer (comparison stars, aperture or filter) rather than the star. It also makes the apparent 2024/25 to 2025/26 brightening in I (-0.08) and R (-0.05) unreliable; only B and V, which barely moved, should be used to judge late recovery.","tag":"inferred","calls":["K46","K47","K48","K49","K50","K26","K27"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:31+00:00"},{"id":"C13","text":"Apparent 2026-06 brightening is not astrophysical: on MJD 61196.98, V is 0.37 mag and I 0.45 mag bright while B and R, taken within ~5 minutes, are normal. On 61197.98, V, B and R are 0.3-0.5 mag bright and I is only 0.12 mag bright. Real brightness changes would show up in all four filters together. These are end-of-season, low-altitude frames.","tag":"observed","calls":["K10","K11","K12","K13"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:31+00:00"},{"id":"C14","text":"The 3.85 arcsec neighbour (G = 16.91, BP-RP = 1.84, 3.8% of the target G flux) cannot produce the optical dips (losing it entirely would dim the blend by 0.04 mag). It sits inside the WISE beam: assuming G-W1 ~ 2.6 for its colour, it is ~9% of the W1 flux, so to fake the IR excess it would have to brighten ~5x in W1 and ~12x in W2 for four years, then fade exactly as the target recovers. Possible in principle (e.g. an eruptive red star), but contrived.","tag":"inferred","calls":["K60","K40"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:32+00:00"},{"id":"C15","text":"All optical evidence for the event in this case comes from one AAVSO observer (HMB). No TESS sector overlaps the deep dips (sectors 34-35 end 2021-03, sector 61 starts 2023-01), and ASAS-SN is unavailable. So the Skeptic's 'independent confirmation: pass' refers to the dataset, not to the event itself.","tag":"observed","calls":["K59","K60","K29"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:33+00:00"},{"id":"C16","text":"TESS shows a 4.13 d periodicity (LS power 0.17, side peaks at 4.03 and 4.22 d that look like sector-gap aliases) not matching any spacecraft or Earth rhythm. AAVSO V shows no periodicity in 2-400 d beyond the trend (top peak 323 d, power 0.08, close to the yearly observing window).","tag":"computed","calls":["K35","K61"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:33+00:00"},{"id":"C17","text":"Timing tension for any single-cloud picture: blackbody grains at 1000 K around a roughly solar-luminosity star (Teff 5760 K, abs G 4.6) sit at r ~ (278/1000)^2 ~ 0.08 au, where the orbital period is ~8 days. Dust that close should cross the line of sight within weeks of appearing, not ~3 years later. So either the emitters are superheated small grains much farther out, or the hot emitter and the later occulter are not the same material (e.g. a hot body or cloud on an eccentric orbit, or dust spreading along an orbit).","tag":"inferred","calls":["K14","K15","K59"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:04:46+00:00"},{"id":"C18","text":"The new ir_excess tool reproduces C3, which was hand arithmetic: over the 2014-17 photosphere, the 2018-20 excess is +44% in W1 and +108% in W2, with a W1/W2 colour temperature of 998 K.","tag":"computed","calls":["K96"],"author":"claude-opus-5.5-maintainer","at":"2026-10-27T06:11:46+00:00"}],"hypotheses":[{"id":"H1","klass":"collision_debris","statement":"A violent dust-production event (e.g. a collision between planetary bodies) around 2018 made a hot (~1000 K) dust cloud, seen first as a sudden infrared excess. Small-grain debris from it later (2021-22) crossed our line of sight, producing ragged, strongly chromatic dips. The material then dispersed or was removed, so the infrared and optical both returned to normal by 2023-24 and have stayed there.","supports":["C1","C2","C3","C4","C5","C6","C7","C8","C9","C10"],"conflicts":["C17","C14"],"would_falsify":"(a) Resolved infrared photometry showing the 2018-23 excess belonged to the 3.85 arcsec neighbour; (b) a repeat of the same dip pattern on a fixed period (a permanent orbiting structure, not a one-off cloud); (c) a renewed optical dimming without any new infrared excess, of similar depth and colour; (d) spectra showing the star is a young accretor with gas-rich inner disk.","status":"favored","confidence":0.6,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:05:06+00:00"},{"id":"H2","klass":"dust_occultation","statement":"Generic circumstellar dust (a clump, a warp or a pre-existing structure, not necessarily collision-made) passed in front of the star in 2021-22. The infrared event is related only loosely or by coincidence.","supports":["C5","C7","C8","C9","C10"],"conflicts":["C1","C2"],"would_falsify":"The tight coupling seen here, an abrupt infrared turn-on from a photospheric baseline followed by optical dips while the IR excess decays and both recover together, already argues against a pre-existing structure. A second, independent infrared excess event with no dips (or dips with no IR) would separate them; recurrence on a period would turn this into a companion/disk model.","status":"live","confidence":0.25,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:05:06+00:00"},{"id":"H3","klass":"eclipse_companion","statement":"A long-period companion carrying a dusty disk or ring system eclipsed the star (epsilon Aur / J1407-like), producing the 2021-22 dimming.","supports":["C5","C9"],"conflicts":["C2","C3","C4","C8","C17"],"would_falsify":"Already strongly disfavoured: a cold companion disk does not produce a sudden 1000 K excess 3 years earlier that fades in step with the eclipse, and the dips are steeper-than-ISM chromatic rather than grey. Would be revived by a strictly periodic recurrence, an astrometric or RV companion, or a symmetric repeat of the dip sequence.","status":"disfavored","confidence":0.05,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:05:07+00:00"},{"id":"H4","klass":"artifact_blend","statement":"The infrared brightening belongs to the red 3.85 arcsec neighbour inside the WISE beam, not to the target.","supports":["C14"],"conflicts":["C2","C4","C9","C14"],"would_falsify":"Already disfavoured for the optical (the neighbour is 3.8% of the G flux and cannot make 1-2 mag dips). For the IR, ruled out if resolved imaging (e.g. NEOWISE single-exposure centroids or ground-based L-band) puts the 2018-23 excess on the target, or if the neighbour is shown to be non-variable.","status":"disfavored","confidence":0.04,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:05:08+00:00"},{"id":"H5","klass":"artifact_instrumental","statement":"The optical event is a calibration artifact of the single AAVSO observer.","supports":["C11","C12","C15"],"conflicts":["C2","C4","C7","C9"],"would_falsify":"The observer does produce real instrumental artifacts at the 0.1-0.5 mag level (C11, C12), so the worry is legitimate. But an artifact would have to fake 1-2 mag, colour-consistent, physically chromatic dips lasting ten months, recover smoothly, and coincide with an independent infrared event. Falsified by any second-observer or survey light curve (ASAS-SN, which named the star, or Gaia DR4 epoch photometry) showing the 2021-22 dips.","status":"disfavored","confidence":0.03,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:05:09+00:00"},{"id":"H6","klass":"yso_dipper","statement":"A young star (the 4.1 d TESS period could be rotation of a young G star) with variable extinction from an inner disk.","supports":["C5","C16"],"conflicts":["C1","C10"],"would_falsify":"Already disfavoured: classic dippers have a permanent inner-disk infrared excess, whereas this star was photospheric in W1-W2 for 3.5 years before 2018 and again after 2023, and has been optically flat to 0.005 mag for a year. Revived by spectroscopic accretion signatures or a permanent excess at longer wavelengths.","status":"disfavored","confidence":0.03,"author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:05:09+00:00"}],"predictions":[{"id":"P1","hypothesis":"H1","statement":"No renewed fading: the median AAVSO V between 2027-01-01 and 2027-06-15 will be less than 0.05 mag fainter than the median over 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-15.","check":{"series":"AAVSO:V","start":61406.0,"end":61571.0,"statistic":"median","baseline":[61041.0,61206.0],"op":"<","value":0.05},"probability":0.88,"resolve_by":"2027-07-31","author":"claude-opus-5.5","registered_at":"2026-10-27T06:06:28+00:00"},{"id":"P2","hypothesis":"H1","statement":"Residual clearing continues (the coin-flip one): the median AAVSO V between 2027-01-01 and 2027-06-15 will be more than 0.005 mag BRIGHTER than the median over 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-15 (2025-to-2026 same-season change was -0.0045).","check":{"series":"AAVSO:V","start":61406.0,"end":61571.0,"statistic":"median","baseline":[61041.0,61206.0],"op":"<","value":-0.005},"probability":0.4,"resolve_by":"2027-07-31","author":"claude-opus-5.5","registered_at":"2026-10-27T06:06:29+00:00"},{"id":"P3","hypothesis":"H1","statement":"A new dip episode: the faintest-2% level (98th percentile) of AAVSO V between 2027-01-01 and 2028-06-15 will be more than 0.2 mag fainter than the 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-15 median.","check":{"series":"AAVSO:V","start":61406.0,"end":61937.0,"statistic":"faintest","baseline":[61041.0,61206.0],"op":">","value":0.2},"probability":0.08,"resolve_by":"2028-07-31","author":"claude-opus-5.5","registered_at":"2026-10-27T06:06:30+00:00"}],"literature":[{"bibcode":"2023Natur.622..251K","note":"Kenworthy et al. 2023, 'A planetary collision afterglow and transit of the resultant debris cloud'"},{"bibcode":"2023ApJ...954..140M","note":"Marshall et al. 2023: evolution of the circumstellar dust"},{"bibcode":"2021ATel14879....1R","note":"Rizzo Smith et al. 2021: discovery 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attempts to break it: no periodicity in V (K61), so no fixed orbiting structure; the neighbour cannot make the optical dips (C14); dips are chromatic in all bands together (C7); the IR excess decays as the optical recovers (C4, C9), and nothing has recurred in 2024-26 (C10). The remaining tension is geometric (C17), not observational. Literature tool failed (K85), so this is formed from data plus my memory of Kenworthy et al. 2023."},"digest":"6bc0da1f42f96fc3","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:06:23+00:00"},{"id":"K87","tool":"update_hypothesis","args":{"hypothesis":"H2","status":"live","confidence":0.25,"reason":"Fits the optical part equally well; only less specific about the infrared turn-on. The data cannot distinguish 'collision made the dust' from 'something else made a new dust cloud'."},"digest":"6bc0da1f42f96fc3","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:06:25+00:00"},{"id":"K88","tool":"update_hypothesis","args":{"hypothesis":"H3","status":"disfavored","confidence":0.05,"reason":"No periodicity (K61), dips are not grey (C7, C8), and a companion disk does not explain the 1000 K infrared turn-on and decay (C2-C4)."},"digest":"6bc0da1f42f96fc3","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:06:26+00:00"},{"id":"K89","tool":"update_hypothesis","args":{"hypothesis":"H4","status":"disfavored","confidence":0.04,"reason":"Rejected for the optical (C14). For the IR it needs a contrived ~5-12x brightening of a field star timed to the target's dimming; cannot be fully excluded without resolved IR data."},"digest":"6bc0da1f42f96fc3","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:06:26+00:00"},{"id":"K90","tool":"update_hypothesis","args":{"hypothesis":"H5","status":"disfavored","confidence":0.03,"reason":"The observer's artifacts are real but at the 0.1-0.5 mag level and inconsistent across filters (C11, C12); the 2021-22 event is consistent across filters and physically coloured (C7) and coincides with an independent infrared event (C2, C4). Not rejected only because no second optical source covers the dips within this case (C15)."},"digest":"6bc0da1f42f96fc3","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:06:27+00:00"},{"id":"K91","tool":"update_hypothesis","args":{"hypothesis":"H6","status":"disfavored","confidence":0.03,"reason":"No infrared excess before 2018 or after 2023 (C1, C4), and the star is flat to 0.005 mag now (C10), unlike an active dipper."},"digest":"6bc0da1f42f96fc3","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:06:28+00:00"},{"id":"K92","tool":"register_prediction","args":{"id":"P1","check":{"series":"AAVSO:V","start":61406.0,"end":61571.0,"statistic":"median","baseline":[61041.0,61206.0],"op":"<","value":0.05}},"digest":"ffbf206bf83499bd","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:06:28+00:00"},{"id":"K93","tool":"register_prediction","args":{"id":"P2","check":{"series":"AAVSO:V","start":61406.0,"end":61571.0,"statistic":"median","baseline":[61041.0,61206.0],"op":"<","value":-0.005}},"digest":"cc0bd8046a7a19b0","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:06:29+00:00"},{"id":"K94","tool":"register_prediction","args":{"id":"P3","check":{"series":"AAVSO:V","start":61406.0,"end":61937.0,"statistic":"faintest","baseline":[61041.0,61206.0],"op":">","value":0.2}},"digest":"97efa7b9ad224203","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:06:30+00:00"},{"id":"K95","tool":"case_overview","args":{},"digest":"036732182462b950","author":"claude-opus-5.5","at":"2026-10-27T06:06:41+00:00"},{"id":"K96","tool":"ir_excess","args":{"baseline_start":"2014-01-01","baseline_end":"2017-12-31","start":"2018-03-01","end":"2020-12-31"},"digest":"66acc642f2583b5e","author":"orchestrator","at":"2026-10-27T06:11:38+00:00","oddsky":"0.2.0","digest10":"e45fd6651bdc2d6f","digest10_added":"sealed by `oddsky replay --seal` after an exact match on the recording platform"},{"id":"K97","tool":"add_claim","args":{"id":"C18","tag":"computed"},"digest":"bca0e1d2abd29f86","author":"claude-opus-5.5-maintainer","at":"2026-10-27T06:11:46+00:00","oddsky":"0.2.0"}],"investigations":[{"file":"claude-opus-5.5-2026-10-27.md","markdown":"# OS-0001 / ASASSN-21qj: the star that glowed before it dimmed\n\nInvestigator: claude-opus-5.5, 2026-10-27. Every number below comes from a tool call recorded in `cases/OS-0001/ledger.jsonl` (call ids K1 to K95). Claim ids (C1 to C17) refer to the case record.\n\n## The short version\n\nAbout 1,850 light-years away there is a star much like the Sun. For three and a half years it was perfectly ordinary in the infrared. Then, sometime in the winter of 2017-18, it suddenly started glowing at 3-5 microns, as though something next to it had been heated to about 1000 K (roughly 700 C, the temperature of a red-hot stove element). Three years later, after that glow had already begun to fade, the star itself started flickering: it lost up to almost 90% of its blue light for days or weeks at a time, more in blue than in red, which is what small dust grains do. By 2023 the glow was gone and the flickering had stopped. Since early 2025 the star has been steady to half a percent. Something made a lot of hot dust very quickly, some of that dust drifted across our view, and then it went away. The leading suspect is the wreckage of a collision between planets. I could not rule out the boring explanations by wishing, so I tried to rule them out with data. The full list of what was tried is below.\n\n## What the data show\n\n- **Infrared, before.** Eight NEOWISE visits from 2014-05 to 2017-11 are flat (W1 = 11.654) with photospheric W1-W2 of about -0.07 [C1] (K3, K4, K14).\n- **Infrared turn-on.** Between the visits on 2017-11-15 and 2018-04-19, W1 brightened by 0.34 mag and W2 by 0.78 mag. W1-W2 jumped from -0.09 to +0.35 [C2] (K3, K4). The 2018-20 median excess is -0.41 mag in W1 (20 sigma) and -0.80 mag in W2 (39 sigma) (K14, K15). Subtracting the photosphere leaves an excess equal to 45% (W1) and 110% (W2) of the stellar flux. That is an excess colour of about 0.9 mag, a blackbody of about 1000 K [C3]. This is my hand arithmetic; no tool computes it.\n- **Infrared decay.** W1-W2 fell from +0.32 (2020) to +0.17 (2021-22) to -0.09 (2023-11), with W1 tracking colour at r = -0.98. By 2023-24, W1 and W2 match 2014-17 to within 0.01 mag [C4] (K4, K16, K17).\n- **Optical event.** AAVSO starts on 2021-08-28 (erratum: C5 says 08-26) already 1.15 mag below the Gaia-implied V = 13.52 (K60, K18). It shows 18 dips, up to 1.8 mag below a running baseline, all between 2021-08 and 2022-06 [C5] (K8).\n- **The infrared led.** TESS sectors 8 (2019-02) and 34-35 (2021-01 to 03) show no dip deeper than 0.05 mag (K29, K31, K32). The fast dipping therefore began at least about 2.9 years after the infrared turned on [C6]. The caveat: TESS is normalised per sector.\n- **Colour of the dimming.** dB/dV = 1.55 against 1.32 for interstellar dust, and dB/dI = 2.86 against 2.24, with r = 0.90-0.98 [C7] (K36-K38). This is steeper than interstellar reddening, so the occulter is small grains, not large grains or a solid body [C8].\n- **Recovery and quiet.** The V seasonal medians are 13.587 (2022/23), 13.506 (2024/25) and 13.489 (2025/26) [C9] (K19, K20, K44). The optical recovery coincides with the infrared decay. Same-season Feb-Jun 2025 against Feb-Jun 2026 differs by -0.0045 mag in V, 0.000 in B and -0.004 in I [C10] (K55-K57), and October 2026 matches (K58).\n\n## What the Skeptic said and what I did about it\n\n- **Baseline (warn).** Correct and important: AAVSO begins mid-event. I used Gaia DR3 for \"normal\" and NEOWISE 2014-17 for the infrared baseline. I never used AAVSO's own median.\n- **NEOWISE blend (warn).** One red neighbour (G = 16.9, BP-RP = 1.84) sits 3.85\" away. It is 3.8% of the G flux, so it cannot make 1-2 mag optical dips. To fake the infrared excess it would need to brighten about 5x in W1 and 12x in W2 for four years, then fade just as the target recovers [C14] (K40). That is contrived but not excluded.\n- **1-day alias in V (warn).** This is the nightly cadence. From 2-400 d the only peak is 323 d, power 0.08, near the yearly window [C16] (K61). The dips do not repeat.\n- **Confirmation (pass).** I disagree with this pass. All optical evidence for the event comes from one observer (HMB), and no TESS sector overlaps the dips [C15]. The pass describes the dataset, not the event.\n\nI also found two artifacts the Skeptic missed. The first is a step on 2025-02-16: I brightens 0.12 mag (15.7 sigma), R 0.05 mag, B and V 0.01-0.02 mag. A brightening that grows toward the red is the opposite of dust clearing, so it is a calibration change [C11, C12] (K46-K50). The second is a two-night \"flare\" in June 2026 that appears in some filters and not others taken minutes apart [C13] (K10-K13). This observer can make 0.1-0.5 mag artifacts. That is exactly why I trust the 2021-22 event: it is consistent across all four filters and has the colour of physical dust.\n\n## Hypotheses (ranked)\n\n1. **H1 collision_debris: favored, 0.60.** It explains the sudden hot infrared excess, the delayed chromatic dips, the joint recovery and the silence since. It is in tension with geometry: 1000 K blackbody dust sits at about 0.08 au, where an orbit takes about 8 days, so why did it take 3 years to transit [C17]? Superheated small grains farther out, or a hot emitter that differs from the occulter, would resolve this. *Falsified by:* the excess belonging to the neighbour, periodic recurrence of the dips, or a renewed dimming with no new infrared.\n2. **H2 dust_occultation: live, 0.25.** Generic dust passed in front of the star. It fits the optical equally well but treats the coupled infrared turn-on as coincidence. *Falsified by:* an infrared event without dips, or dips without infrared, in the future.\n3. **H3 eclipse_companion: disfavored, 0.05.** There is no period, the dips are not grey, and it does not explain the 1000 K excess.\n4. **H4 artifact_blend: disfavored, 0.04.** See the blend discussion above.\n5. **H5 artifact_instrumental: disfavored, 0.03.** It needs an artifact that fakes physical colours and coincides with an independent infrared event. *Falsified by:* any second optical light curve of 2021-22.\n6. **H6 yso_dipper: disfavored, 0.03.** There was no excess before 2018 or after 2023.\n\n## Contamination, and the literature\n\nI cannot be blind: I remember Kenworthy et al. 2023 (Nature). They proposed that a collision between planets left a hot, expanded remnant whose debris cloud later transited the star. The `literature` tool returned nothing (K85; a bug, since fixed: its SIMBAD query used the reserved word `year` and swallowed the error), so this comparison is from memory and should be checked. The data agree with what I remember on the points they can test: the infrared led the optical by years, the excess was about 1000 K, and the dips were non-grey. The data cannot test planet masses or the post-impact body. Those are the paper's interpretation, not something these light curves show.\n\n## What's new since the paper (2023-2026)\n\n- The infrared excess vanished completely by 2023-11, at the 0.01 mag level (K16, K17).\n- The optical recovered fully and stayed flat. There were no new dips in 2024, 2025 or 2026, and the change between 2025 and 2026 is under 0.005 mag [C10].\n- The remaining \"recovery\" in I and R during 2025 was a calibration step, not the star [C12].\n- TESS shows a 4.13 d periodicity [C16] (K35). It might be rotation of a fairly young G star, which is speculation, or a neighbour in the 21\" pixels.\n\n## Predictions (sealed today; graded against AAVSO V)\n\n- **P1, p = 0.88.** The median for Jan-Jun 2027 will be less than 0.05 mag fainter than the median for Jan-Jun 2026 (13.486).\n- **P2, p = 0.40, the coin flip.** The median for Jan-Jun 2027 will be more than 0.005 mag *brighter* than Jan-Jun 2026, meaning residual clearing continues.\n- **P3, p = 0.08.** Over 2027-01 to 2028-06, the faintest 2% of points will be more than 0.2 mag below the 2026 median. That would be a new dip episode.\n\nIf the observer stops, all three come out \"unresolvable\", which is a real risk with one observer.\n\n## What I could not check\n\n- There is one optical observer, and ASAS-SN (which named this star) was unavailable.\n- There is no optical light curve between Gaia (mid-2017) and AAVSO (2021-08), so I do not know when the dimming began. I only know when it was not happening (the TESS sectors).\n- There are no spectra (gas, accretion, grain composition), no data longward of 4.6 microns and no infrared after 2024-04.\n- The 1000 K temperature is a two-band blackbody estimate done by hand.\n- I could not check the 4.13 d signal sector by sector.\n\n## Feature requests for Oddsky\n\n- Fix `literature`, which silently returned nothing. (Fixed in oddsky 0.2.0.)\n- Add a time window to `find_excursions`, `periodogram` and `cross_band`, so I can ask \"any dips in 2024-26?\" with a local noise level. The global noise of 0.035 mag hides 0.05 mag events in quiet years.\n- Add an infrared-excess tool that subtracts the photosphere and returns colour, temperature and fractional flux.\n- Use a piecewise changepoint for rise-then-decay shapes.\n- Add a per-sector TESS view.\n- Add `check_prediction --dry-run`.\n- Add a Skeptic check for step changes concentrated in one filter.\n"}]}