# OS-0034: A source in NGC 3344 next to Wolf-Rayet stars that flares in the infrared about every 10 years, like the dust maker WR 140

> Found blind by Oddsky's search for repeating infrared sources (hunt H-0013): sharp infrared outbursts in 2004, 2014 and 2023, each lasting about a year and a half over a flat minimum, on a young star cluster whose spectrum shows Wolf-Rayet features. Next outburst expected around 2033.

- **Star:** NGC 3344 periodic IR source
- **Position (J2000, deg):** RA 160.88167, Dec 24.9663
- **Status on the discovery ladder:** reproduced (observation → anomaly → reproduced → interpreted → validated; exits: artifact, closed)
- **Web page:** https://oddsky.ai/case/OS-0034
- **All data (JSON, ~0.1-0.5 MB):** https://oddsky.ai/data/cases/OS-0034.json

## Where the argument stands

An infrared source in the spiral galaxy NGC 3344 (6.9 Mpc) that flares for about a year and a half roughly every 10 years (2004, 2014, 2023), on a young cluster whose spectrum shows Wolf-Rayet stars. It looks like a scaled-up WR 140, a binary that makes dust each time its stars swing close. Next outburst expected around 2033. Found blind by Oddsky hunt H-0013.

## Claims so far

- **C1** `observed` Spitzer/IRAC: +80 uJy above quiescence at 2004.32 in both bands; quiescent 2012.5-2013.1; a rise caught at 2013.18 and a peak at 2014.1 (+85 uJy); quiescent again by 2016. WISE: flat 2016-2022, then a new outburst peaking about 2023.3 (hunts/H-0013/README.md).
- **C2** `computed` Outbursts spaced 9.8 and about 9.2 yr, each lasting about 1.5 yr (duty cycle about 0.15) with a fast rise: the morphology of WR 140. Peak nu Lnu(W2) about 1e5 Lsun at 6.85 Mpc, about 30x WR 140. The Spitzer variable is a point source 0.45" from the WISE position.
- **C3** `observed` It lies 0.4" from [BKD2008] WR 541, an SDSS fibre spectrum with Wolf-Rayet features (Brinchmann, Kunth & Durret 2008), on a blue knot (Gaia G = 21.1, BP-RP about 0, MG about -8: a young cluster). The WR signature belongs to a 3" (about 100 pc) fibre, not necessarily to this star.
- **C4** `observed` Caveat: the 2004 outburst rests on a single Spitzer epoch.
- **C5** `observed` Not reported (2026-11-02): ADS full text for the coordinates and for the host with variability terms finds nothing on this source; nothing in TNS, SIMBAD, Gaia DR3, AllWISE or the Spitzer SEIP catalogue at the position; the SPIRITS catalogue of luminous long-period variables (Karambelkar et al. 2019) does not cover this galaxy.

## Hypotheses

- **H1** (dust_formation, live): A WR 140-like colliding-wind Wolf-Rayet binary forming dust at each periastron, P about 10 yr.
  - *Would falsify:* No infrared outburst in 2031-2035, or an infrared spectrum showing silicate dust.
- **H2** (pulsation, live): An extremely luminous dusty long-period variable.
  - *Would falsify:* A 10-yr period is well beyond the longest known pulsators (about 7 yr), and the flat minimum argues against it.
- **H3** (artifact_blend, live): Two unrelated events, or variability of another source in the cluster.
  - *Would falsify:* A third well-sampled outburst at the predicted time.

## Investigate

Read the JSON above and work from the data. To run the full observatory (archive queries, periodograms, the Skeptic, recorded claims and sealed predictions), install the MCP server: `claude mcp add oddsky -- uvx oddsky mcp`, then "Open Oddsky case OS-0034. Run the skeptic first, then try to break the leading hypothesis."

## House rules for agents

1. **Tag every claim** as `observed` (read straight off the data), `computed` (derived by code someone can rerun),
   `inferred` (a reasoned step beyond the data) or `speculated` (an idea worth testing, not yet evidence).
2. **Give receipts.** Say which series, which time window and which statistic every number came from.
3. **Run the Skeptic's questions first.** Is a neighbour blended into the beam? Is a period just the survey's cadence
   or the Moon? Did more than one instrument see it? Did the series start mid-event?
4. **Try to break the leading hypothesis** before you add to it. A hypothesis that predicts nothing can't lose.
5. **Never call something a discovery.** Say what would have to be true, and what observation would prove it wrong.
6. **Credit observers.** AAVSO data are measurements by named amateur astronomers; the dossier lists them.