{"prev": "0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000", "hash": "d06b6b941d4e8fb96c83c67a246f9bf902b7855072924fbf568b4731f087d7f2", "seq": 1, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0003\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-haiku-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H01\",\"prediction\":\"P1\",\"probability\":0.85,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":null,\"seq\":1,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"The median of AAVSO:V over days 19800-20000 stays brighter than 10.95 (the quiet recent level is about 10.80).\",\"target\":\"EE Cep\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "d06b6b941d4e8fb96c83c67a246f9bf902b7855072924fbf568b4731f087d7f2", "hash": "fd8706b0e2ca438f192d66bd8f44ff935f9900aacbc902b2b4eb8bac127be0ee", "seq": 2, "body": "{\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:31:22+00:00\",\"kind\":\"grade\",\"n_points\":152,\"note\":\"median over window = 10.801 (152 points, 62 nights)\",\"observed\":10.801,\"outcome\":\"true\",\"ref\":1,\"ref_hash\":\"d06b6b941d4e8fb96c83c67a246f9bf902b7855072924fbf568b4731f087d7f2\",\"seq\":2,\"source\":\"trial scorer v2 (extremes = nightly medians)\"}"}
{"prev": "fd8706b0e2ca438f192d66bd8f44ff935f9900aacbc902b2b4eb8bac127be0ee", "hash": "8cc7dddb729a329a000b6e097734a172fed3dd59f74f365071bca526bdb147ca", "seq": 3, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0003\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H01\",\"prediction\":\"P1\",\"probability\":0.9,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":null,\"seq\":3,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"Out-of-eclipse plateau continues: the median of AAVSO:V between days 19800 and 20120 is brighter than 10.86 (no new fading before the next predicted eclipse).\",\"target\":\"EE Cep\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "8cc7dddb729a329a000b6e097734a172fed3dd59f74f365071bca526bdb147ca", "hash": "0db533205477989a815de6d3134d114ffbdc53da73385a36d4537efb8a0fa22e", "seq": 4, "body": "{\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:31:20+00:00\",\"kind\":\"grade\",\"n_points\":2014,\"note\":\"median over window = 10.805 (2014 points, 134 nights)\",\"observed\":10.805,\"outcome\":\"true\",\"ref\":3,\"ref_hash\":\"8cc7dddb729a329a000b6e097734a172fed3dd59f74f365071bca526bdb147ca\",\"seq\":4,\"source\":\"trial scorer v2 (extremes = nightly medians)\"}"}
{"prev": "0db533205477989a815de6d3134d114ffbdc53da73385a36d4537efb8a0fa22e", "hash": "97dfadadca8be9714375b9ec50cc63478910ce85da1b1d2f93e059783fcf8538", "seq": 5, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0003\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-haiku-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H01\",\"prediction\":\"P2\",\"probability\":0.5,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":null,\"seq\":5,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"The median of AAVSO:V over days 19800-20400 is fainter than 10.80 (the recent quiet level): a slight drift fainter, close to a coin flip.\",\"target\":\"EE Cep\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "97dfadadca8be9714375b9ec50cc63478910ce85da1b1d2f93e059783fcf8538", "hash": "ad49b5854364d026c67d19826e745190600c3d284cbc1072997e494eab060375", "seq": 6, "body": "{\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:31:22+00:00\",\"kind\":\"grade\",\"n_points\":18319,\"note\":\"median over window = 10.863 (18319 points, 322 nights)\",\"observed\":10.863,\"outcome\":\"true\",\"ref\":5,\"ref_hash\":\"97dfadadca8be9714375b9ec50cc63478910ce85da1b1d2f93e059783fcf8538\",\"seq\":6,\"source\":\"trial scorer v2 (extremes = nightly medians)\"}"}
{"prev": "ad49b5854364d026c67d19826e745190600c3d284cbc1072997e494eab060375", "hash": "cb8e77c9b9daa76f1944f840b80e4f2465063acab06db2ec34a04ab4c235802a", "seq": 7, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0003\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H01\",\"prediction\":\"P2\",\"probability\":0.75,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":null,\"seq\":7,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"The next eclipse (ephemeris: minima 5840 + n*2048.3 d -> mid ~20178 +/- 10) is under way: median AAVSO:V between days 20165 and 20195 is fainter than 10.95.\",\"target\":\"EE Cep\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "cb8e77c9b9daa76f1944f840b80e4f2465063acab06db2ec34a04ab4c235802a", "hash": "9c14968674c1782377baa6ba8e3a324dca86c7e639d2540fc69968b74aa48166", "seq": 8, "body": "{\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:31:20+00:00\",\"kind\":\"grade\",\"n_points\":6386,\"note\":\"median over window = 11.257 (6386 points, 31 nights)\",\"observed\":11.257,\"outcome\":\"true\",\"ref\":7,\"ref_hash\":\"cb8e77c9b9daa76f1944f840b80e4f2465063acab06db2ec34a04ab4c235802a\",\"seq\":8,\"source\":\"trial scorer v2 (extremes = nightly medians)\"}"}
{"prev": "9c14968674c1782377baa6ba8e3a324dca86c7e639d2540fc69968b74aa48166", "hash": "2ea900edaf3c502fc7898d2db6a55ea0a2333e4d9f25193edc66863b12fd8216", "seq": 9, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0003\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-haiku-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H01\",\"prediction\":\"P3\",\"probability\":0.04,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":null,\"seq\":9,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"The median of AAVSO:V over days 19800-20200 is brighter than 10.60, i.e. a clear 0.2-mag brightening, which the record has not shown.\",\"target\":\"EE Cep\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "2ea900edaf3c502fc7898d2db6a55ea0a2333e4d9f25193edc66863b12fd8216", "hash": "1bde47176710f77683352c0ca4cfe0649d826d0c765c2a869516b0c89ed7a915", "seq": 10, "body": "{\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:31:22+00:00\",\"kind\":\"grade\",\"n_points\":13698,\"note\":\"median over window = 10.907 (13698 points, 214 nights)\",\"observed\":10.907,\"outcome\":\"false\",\"ref\":9,\"ref_hash\":\"2ea900edaf3c502fc7898d2db6a55ea0a2333e4d9f25193edc66863b12fd8216\",\"seq\":10,\"source\":\"trial scorer v2 (extremes = nightly medians)\"}"}
{"prev": "1bde47176710f77683352c0ca4cfe0649d826d0c765c2a869516b0c89ed7a915", "hash": "5cb09b80c9eca662500d730ca3f258c38d39fd66dd2bd34c25b002198dbe1bb8", "seq": 11, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0003\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H01\",\"prediction\":\"P3\",\"probability\":0.45,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":null,\"seq\":11,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"Depth near 50/50: the core of the next eclipse is as deep as the 2014/2020-like events: median AAVSO:V between days 20170 and 20190 is fainter than 11.15 (previous comparable-window medians ranged ~11.05-11.4).\",\"target\":\"EE Cep\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "5cb09b80c9eca662500d730ca3f258c38d39fd66dd2bd34c25b002198dbe1bb8", "hash": "a8f4fa33f2ae7cb93277b2f970f3fef5a00ba31491992ef25c57e56df5f47531", "seq": 12, "body": "{\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:31:20+00:00\",\"kind\":\"grade\",\"n_points\":5803,\"note\":\"median over window = 11.255 (5803 points, 21 nights)\",\"observed\":11.255,\"outcome\":\"true\",\"ref\":11,\"ref_hash\":\"5cb09b80c9eca662500d730ca3f258c38d39fd66dd2bd34c25b002198dbe1bb8\",\"seq\":12,\"source\":\"trial scorer v2 (extremes = nightly medians)\"}"}
{"prev": "a8f4fa33f2ae7cb93277b2f970f3fef5a00ba31491992ef25c57e56df5f47531", "hash": "37f6e5eea810ef251753620e1c67b192af2741fa247c841c2f566c1f855eb4b6", "seq": 13, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0003\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H01\",\"prediction\":\"P4\",\"probability\":0.75,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":null,\"seq\":13,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"The eclipse has not yet begun by day 20140: median AAVSO:V between days 20115 and 20140 is brighter than 10.88.\",\"target\":\"EE Cep\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "37f6e5eea810ef251753620e1c67b192af2741fa247c841c2f566c1f855eb4b6", "hash": "161685a458514e02a7ca34a14289ef2625f45c7edb0019efd9edb28a614aed6b", "seq": 14, "body": "{\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:31:20+00:00\",\"kind\":\"grade\",\"n_points\":2153,\"note\":\"median over window = 10.810 (2153 points, 26 nights)\",\"observed\":10.81,\"outcome\":\"true\",\"ref\":13,\"ref_hash\":\"37f6e5eea810ef251753620e1c67b192af2741fa247c841c2f566c1f855eb4b6\",\"seq\":14,\"source\":\"trial scorer v2 (extremes = nightly medians)\"}"}
{"prev": "161685a458514e02a7ca34a14289ef2625f45c7edb0019efd9edb28a614aed6b", "hash": "75053b82754aae086eaacaa59a64e7f58fd325329136ac3731bede370cc53aed", "seq": 15, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0006\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-haiku-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H02\",\"prediction\":\"P1\",\"probability\":0.5,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":\"2027-07-14\",\"seq\":15,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"Median of AAVSO:V over days 49788-50288 is fainter than 11.0 mag (magnitude above 11.0).\",\"target\":\"SS Cyg\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "75053b82754aae086eaacaa59a64e7f58fd325329136ac3731bede370cc53aed", "hash": "09801af0f11a27185af118fb4b314e6c9ab246ac2d492f39ce750786873ac4ea", "seq": 16, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0006\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H02\",\"prediction\":\"P1\",\"probability\":0.94,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":null,\"seq\":16,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"At least one dwarf-nova outburst is recorded between days 49790 and 49900: brightest AAVSO:V point brighter than 9.3.\",\"target\":\"SS Cyg\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "09801af0f11a27185af118fb4b314e6c9ab246ac2d492f39ce750786873ac4ea", "hash": "6c7c6a81c5949cbf9ce9121e93e3f31bbea51f1b4d6f0e01b1e102d295b8a7c4", "seq": 17, "body": "{\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:31:20+00:00\",\"kind\":\"grade\",\"n_points\":3965,\"note\":\"brightest over window = 8.849 (3965 points, 85 nights)\",\"observed\":8.849,\"outcome\":\"true\",\"ref\":16,\"ref_hash\":\"09801af0f11a27185af118fb4b314e6c9ab246ac2d492f39ce750786873ac4ea\",\"seq\":17,\"source\":\"trial scorer v2 (extremes = nightly medians)\"}"}
{"prev": "6c7c6a81c5949cbf9ce9121e93e3f31bbea51f1b4d6f0e01b1e102d295b8a7c4", "hash": "0b399d28e5a7a5cc80331e09d86b79e3b47a6e5225fd13b5f3a29d0de3636b92", "seq": 18, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0006\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-haiku-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H02\",\"prediction\":\"P2\",\"probability\":0.7,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":\"2032-03-21\",\"seq\":18,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"Median of AAVSO:V over days 49788-52000 is fainter than 10.5 mag.\",\"target\":\"SS Cyg\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "0b399d28e5a7a5cc80331e09d86b79e3b47a6e5225fd13b5f3a29d0de3636b92", "hash": "538d82131c8de29e2691a1832d49609638342abd9b919f38c57df2498d2dbcd9", "seq": 19, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0006\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H02\",\"prediction\":\"P2\",\"probability\":0.78,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":null,\"seq\":19,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"The next outburst (last began ~day 49744; recent intervals 23-43 d) is observed by day 49825: brightest AAVSO:V in 49788-49825 brighter than 9.5.\",\"target\":\"SS Cyg\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "538d82131c8de29e2691a1832d49609638342abd9b919f38c57df2498d2dbcd9", "hash": "d8840ea5bd8ce94e3431083b32570bdd558d2e996c1f2500e05950ddc70ae22d", "seq": 20, "body": "{\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:31:20+00:00\",\"kind\":\"grade\",\"n_points\":180,\"note\":\"brightest over window = 8.943 (180 points, 23 nights)\",\"observed\":8.943,\"outcome\":\"true\",\"ref\":19,\"ref_hash\":\"538d82131c8de29e2691a1832d49609638342abd9b919f38c57df2498d2dbcd9\",\"seq\":20,\"source\":\"trial scorer v2 (extremes = nightly medians)\"}"}
{"prev": "d8840ea5bd8ce94e3431083b32570bdd558d2e996c1f2500e05950ddc70ae22d", "hash": "090a769741d10875e31997863e610d178f4cd6eae4e0c51192a82e4a68f59d25", "seq": 21, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0006\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-haiku-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H02\",\"prediction\":\"P3\",\"probability\":0.15,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":\"2027-07-14\",\"seq\":21,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"Median of AAVSO:V over days 49788-50288 is brighter than 10.0 mag (sustained brightening, not just outbursts).\",\"target\":\"SS Cyg\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "090a769741d10875e31997863e610d178f4cd6eae4e0c51192a82e4a68f59d25", "hash": "e637e4584510a2a481f93d0f3a92cfdba793cba32f49c7de8d2dfcb995e136c5", "seq": 22, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0006\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H02\",\"prediction\":\"P3\",\"probability\":0.5,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":null,\"seq\":22,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"Median AAVSO:V in days 49800-49950 is fainter than 11.3 (recent 150-d medians 11.17-11.44; near coin-flip).\",\"target\":\"SS Cyg\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "e637e4584510a2a481f93d0f3a92cfdba793cba32f49c7de8d2dfcb995e136c5", "hash": "0ee280079d22b8ea644a9ebfca2cec73e09c8c270680e1002932a95f3c2f8ec5", "seq": 23, "body": "{\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:31:20+00:00\",\"kind\":\"grade\",\"n_points\":5964,\"note\":\"median over window = 11.627 (5964 points, 130 nights)\",\"observed\":11.627,\"outcome\":\"true\",\"ref\":22,\"ref_hash\":\"e637e4584510a2a481f93d0f3a92cfdba793cba32f49c7de8d2dfcb995e136c5\",\"seq\":23,\"source\":\"trial scorer v2 (extremes = nightly medians)\"}"}
{"prev": "0ee280079d22b8ea644a9ebfca2cec73e09c8c270680e1002932a95f3c2f8ec5", "hash": "40a2d9ff010012869098a472873a91edb9839d26167f668bc49fbeee496a4cbc", "seq": 24, "body": "{\"agent\":\"Trial 001 investigator\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T00:00:00+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0006\",\"check\":null,\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"packet\":\"H02\",\"prediction\":\"P4\",\"probability\":0.08,\"provenance\":\"git: trials/strange-stars-001 (answers sealed sha256 4608af909963…)\",\"resolve_by\":null,\"seq\":24,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"A repeat of the anomalous bright standstill-like state: median AAVSO:V in days 49800-49950 brighter than 10.8.\",\"target\":\"SS Cyg\",\"trial\":\"strange-stars-001\"}"}
{"prev": "40a2d9ff010012869098a472873a91edb9839d26167f668bc49fbeee496a4cbc", "hash": "b26ddb1db37f719657a096dfe2a81b2d541c8fb1aa2ec8d31195a2c9d97dc68d", "seq": 25, "body": "{\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:31:20+00:00\",\"kind\":\"grade\",\"n_points\":5964,\"note\":\"median over window = 11.627 (5964 points, 130 nights)\",\"observed\":11.627,\"outcome\":\"false\",\"ref\":24,\"ref_hash\":\"40a2d9ff010012869098a472873a91edb9839d26167f668bc49fbeee496a4cbc\",\"seq\":25,\"source\":\"trial scorer v2 (extremes = nightly medians)\"}"}
{"prev": "b26ddb1db37f719657a096dfe2a81b2d541c8fb1aa2ec8d31195a2c9d97dc68d", "hash": "0001db865fb4c1c335231e49b361d95a7ec40992faeb43f3fddc4ab1a3c7f2c6", "seq": 26, "body": "{\"agent\":\"local MCP\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:06:28+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0001\",\"check\":{\"baseline\":[61041.0,61206.0],\"end\":61571.0,\"op\":\"<\",\"series\":\"AAVSO:V\",\"start\":61406.0,\"statistic\":\"median\",\"value\":0.05},\"hypothesis\":\"H1\",\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"prediction\":\"P1\",\"probability\":0.88,\"provenance\":\"git: cases/OS-0001/case.yaml\",\"resolve_by\":\"2027-07-31\",\"seq\":26,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"No renewed fading: the median AAVSO V between 2027-01-01 and 2027-06-15 will be less than 0.05 mag fainter than the median over 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-15.\",\"target\":\"ASASSN-21qj\"}"}
{"prev": "0001db865fb4c1c335231e49b361d95a7ec40992faeb43f3fddc4ab1a3c7f2c6", "hash": "4e00c8ad6c82ee9c90d49615d30b7487c07149f1e8d205dd027c399a94974c7b", "seq": 27, "body": "{\"agent\":\"local MCP\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:06:29+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0001\",\"check\":{\"baseline\":[61041.0,61206.0],\"end\":61571.0,\"op\":\"<\",\"series\":\"AAVSO:V\",\"start\":61406.0,\"statistic\":\"median\",\"value\":-0.005},\"hypothesis\":\"H1\",\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"prediction\":\"P2\",\"probability\":0.4,\"provenance\":\"git: cases/OS-0001/case.yaml\",\"resolve_by\":\"2027-07-31\",\"seq\":27,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"Residual clearing continues (the coin-flip one): the median AAVSO V between 2027-01-01 and 2027-06-15 will be more than 0.005 mag BRIGHTER than the median over 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-15 (2025-to-2026 same-season change was -0.0045).\",\"target\":\"ASASSN-21qj\"}"}
{"prev": "4e00c8ad6c82ee9c90d49615d30b7487c07149f1e8d205dd027c399a94974c7b", "hash": "d413f15830903b5f2264cbaa8876fd6000b53b40b395029dbd7c8084aabdf28c", "seq": 28, "body": "{\"agent\":\"local MCP\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T06:06:30+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0001\",\"check\":{\"baseline\":[61041.0,61206.0],\"end\":61937.0,\"op\":\">\",\"series\":\"AAVSO:V\",\"start\":61406.0,\"statistic\":\"faintest\",\"value\":0.2},\"hypothesis\":\"H1\",\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"prediction\":\"P3\",\"probability\":0.08,\"provenance\":\"git: cases/OS-0001/case.yaml\",\"resolve_by\":\"2028-07-31\",\"seq\":28,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"A new dip episode: the faintest-2% level (98th percentile) of AAVSO V between 2027-01-01 and 2028-06-15 will be more than 0.2 mag fainter than the 2026-01-01 to 2026-06-15 median.\",\"target\":\"ASASSN-21qj\"}"}
{"prev": "d413f15830903b5f2264cbaa8876fd6000b53b40b395029dbd7c8084aabdf28c", "hash": "9310d9d964ba348e14f987a27d61e4250dd694f9b89d54bf052e9ebfd7963add", "seq": 29, "body": "{\"agent\":\"local MCP\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T08:49:51+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0003\",\"check\":{\"baseline\":[62745.0,62986.99999],\"end\":63048.99999,\"op\":\">\",\"series\":\"AAVSO:V\",\"start\":63034.0,\"statistic\":\"median\",\"value\":0.3},\"hypothesis\":\"H1\",\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"prediction\":\"P1\",\"probability\":0.85,\"provenance\":\"git: cases/OS-0003/case.yaml\",\"resolve_by\":\"2031-08-01\",\"seq\":29,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"The next eclipse arrives on the 2050-day clock: the median V over 2031-06-17..2031-07-01 is more than 0.3 mag fainter than the median over 2030-09-01..2031-04-30.\",\"target\":\"EE Cep\"}"}
{"prev": "9310d9d964ba348e14f987a27d61e4250dd694f9b89d54bf052e9ebfd7963add", "hash": "aa37458e92ccaf27139ce84cdca869c6720cb21996463e8110b828744e7978a6", "seq": 30, "body": "{\"agent\":\"local MCP\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T08:49:51+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0003\",\"check\":{\"baseline\":[62745.0,62986.99999],\"end\":63062.99999,\"op\":\">\",\"series\":\"AAVSO:V\",\"start\":63022.0,\"statistic\":\"faintest\",\"value\":1.0},\"hypothesis\":\"H1\",\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"prediction\":\"P2\",\"probability\":0.55,\"provenance\":\"git: cases/OS-0003/case.yaml\",\"resolve_by\":\"2031-08-01\",\"seq\":30,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"The disk stays near deep-eclipse geometry: the faintest nightly median over 2031-06-05..2031-07-15 is more than 1.0 mag below the 2030-31 baseline.\",\"target\":\"EE Cep\"}"}
{"prev": "aa37458e92ccaf27139ce84cdca869c6720cb21996463e8110b828744e7978a6", "hash": "2de3209ffd9356d23210b78a29c66bb1f04a2d654375fd48258a2246364cf82b", "seq": 31, "body": "{\"agent\":\"local MCP\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T08:49:51+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0003\",\"check\":{\"baseline\":[62745.0,62986.99999],\"end\":63062.99999,\"op\":\">\",\"series\":\"AAVSO:V\",\"start\":63022.0,\"statistic\":\"faintest\",\"value\":1.5},\"hypothesis\":\"H1\",\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-opus-5.5\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"prediction\":\"P3\",\"probability\":0.25,\"provenance\":\"git: cases/OS-0003/case.yaml\",\"resolve_by\":\"2031-08-01\",\"seq\":31,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"The 2031 eclipse is deeper still than 2025: faintest nightly median more than 1.5 mag below baseline.\",\"target\":\"EE Cep\"}"}
{"prev": "2de3209ffd9356d23210b78a29c66bb1f04a2d654375fd48258a2246364cf82b", "seq": 32, "hash": "7db80384a5a96ee5654e6335aae90a764a3aa3c2deff330c13afa65cd9461a68", "body": "{\"agent\":\"local MCP\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T19:34:18+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0015\",\"check\":{\"end\":61806.0,\"op\":\">\",\"series\":\"ZTF:ZTF_r\",\"start\":61770.0,\"statistic\":\"faintest\",\"value\":15.78},\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-fable-5.1\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"prediction\":\"P1\",\"probability\":0.75,\"provenance\":\"git: cases/OS-0015/case.yaml\",\"resolve_by\":\"2028-03-01\",\"seq\":32,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"At least one ZTF r night between MJD 61770 and 61806 (2028 January 17 +/- 18 d, the eclipse predicted at P = 385.7 d; the 2026 December event falls at solar conjunction) is fainter than 15.78 mag, i.e. at least 1.0 mag below the 14.78 maximum.\",\"target\":\"Gaia DR3 4152421080966024704\"}"}
{"prev": "7db80384a5a96ee5654e6335aae90a764a3aa3c2deff330c13afa65cd9461a68", "seq": 33, "hash": "40dede82ed07467b990006ed2aff6df1820e4e812477a7b7a3b8bf705c7bc9a6", "body": "{\"agent\":\"local MCP\",\"at\":\"2026-10-27T19:34:18+00:00\",\"case\":\"OS-0015\",\"check\":{\"end\":61740.0,\"op\":\"<\",\"series\":\"ZTF:ZTF_r\",\"start\":61380.0,\"statistic\":\"faintest\",\"value\":15.3},\"hypothesis\":null,\"kind\":\"seal\",\"model\":\"claude-fable-5.1\",\"observer\":\"ODY\",\"prediction\":\"P2\",\"probability\":0.7,\"provenance\":\"git: cases/OS-0015/case.yaml\",\"resolve_by\":\"2028-01-01\",\"seq\":33,\"source\":\"git\",\"statement\":\"No ZTF r night between MJD 61380 and 61740 (the 2027 observing season, between the December 2026 and January 2028 eclipses) is fainter than 15.3 mag: the star stays within 0.5 mag of maximum between eclipses.\",\"target\":\"Gaia DR3 4152421080966024704\"}"}